Editorial: The Bear is Back - Russia Returns to Vietnam

By Carl Thayer

A visit to Vietnam by Vladimir Putin is just the latest sign of the former allies’ growing ties.

President Vladimir Putin paid a whirlwind one-day visit to Hanoi on November 12 to advance the comprehensive strategic partnership reached with Vietnam last year. This was Putin’s third visit to Vietnam and his second since assuming the office of President of the Russian Federation.

Putin met Vietnam’s top three leaders, Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung, President Truong Tan Sang and party Secretary General Nguyen Phu Trong. At the conclusion of his visit it was announced that seventeen bilateral agreements had been reached, including five in the oil, gas and energy sectors. These agreements were a reflection of the broad-based nature of bilateral relations developed ten years after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Vietnam’s armed forces — air defense air force, navy, armor and artillery corps — are dependent on Soviet-era spare parts and equipment and badly in need of modernization. Between 1993 and 2000, Russia sold Vietnam twelve Su-27SK and Su-27UB Flanker jet aircraft, two missile attack corvettes, four radar systems, and other military equipment.

In March 2001, the Russian Federation became Vietnam’s first strategic partner. At that time the two sides mapped out eight major areas of cooperation:  political-diplomatic, oil and gas, hydro power and nuclear energy, trade and investment, science and technology, education and training, culture and tourism, military equipment, and technology.

Read the full story at The Diplomat

News Report: Su-35 contract with China may be signed in 2014 - source

A contract on the delivery of Russia's Sukhoi Su-35 multirole fighter jets to China may be signed in 2014, a source from Russian military export agencies told Interfax on Wednesday.

"The deliveries of Su-35 [fighters] to China may begin in late 2014 or early 2015," he said.

Originally, the contract was expected to be concluded in 2013.

"The quantity specified by the draft Su-35 contract has not changed - 24 jets [will be delivered]. However, China has set additional requirements: it wants to buy jets adjusted to Chinese specifications rather than aircraft produced for the Russian Air Force," the source said.

He did not say which adjustments would be made to meet China's standards.

"The Chinese proposition needs further consideration, and the pre-contract negotiations will continue," the source said.

"The contract will be signed anyway: a political decision to this effect has already been made."

This story first appeared on Voice of Russia & is reposted here with permission.

News Report: Russia, China - Strategic partners or rivals, and the India factor

The Russia-China relationship is perhaps one of the most intriguing relationships of contemporary times. Are they ‘comprehensive strategic partners’, as they proclaim? The answer is ‘yes’ and ‘no’.

Are they rivals? The answer is again the same: ‘yes’ and ‘no’, depending upon which particular sectors of the globe you are looking at and what areas of activity you have in mind.

And when it comes to India – in the framework of South Asia or Indo-Pacific, or Southeast Asia or Central Asia – the Russo-Chinese equation gets all the more muddled and befuddled!

Here is an attempted explanation, though the caveat from this writer is that such an explanation is bound to be in the mode of volatile changeability, depending on the fast-evolving global strategic environment.

To take the last point first, the Sino-Indian-Russian strategic triangle is a study in real-politik.

Submarines are an important area. No, we are not talking here about the sinking of INS Sindhurakshak on the midnight of August 14 in Mumbai naval dockyard as it is an entirely different story.

Construction of submarines is one area where the three powers – India, China and Russia – find themselves in cross-currents of geo-politics. Here is how.

News Report: Fiji turns to Russia, China amid strained regional ties

Commodore Josaia Voreqe Bainimarama (Wiki Info)

Fiji's military ruler said Sunday he would meet Beijing's leaders in China this month, a week after unveiling an official trip to Russia, as he looks beyond strained regional ties in the South Pacific.

Voreqe Bainimarama has been banned from Australia and New Zealand since seizing control in a 2006 coup.

His announcement that he would hold talks with Premier Li Keqiang and President Xi Jinping came a week after he said he would meet Russian President Vladimir Putin next month when he is in Moscow for the Rugby Sevens World Cup.

"I have been invited to visit China late this month to meet with the Chinese Premier, Li Keqiang, and President Xi Jinping," Bainimarama told the Fiji Sun from France.

The self-appointed prime minister has previously said he wants to ditch traditional ties with regional powerhouses Australia and New Zealand and align his Pacific Island nation with China.

He said the Chinese understood the reforms he has been trying to implement before a return to democratic elections scheduled for next year.

He also chaired a recent meeting of the Group of 77 developing nations and China.

In the continuing stand-off at a regional diplomatic level, Australia last year agreed to restore full diplomatic ties with Fiji, but Fiji has refused to endorse Australia's preferred choice for high commissioner.

Voice of Russia, AFP

This story first appeared on Voice of Russia & is reposted here with permission.

News Story: UN's Ban hopes N. Korea will halt missile tests

UN chief Ban Ki-moon voiced hope Sunday that North Korea will avoid future missile tests, after the Stalinist state fired three short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan.

"I hope that North Korea will refrain from such further actions," Ban told the RIA Novosti news agency in comments translated into Russian.

Ban was in Moscow following talks Friday with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Black Sea resort of Sochi.North Korea sometimes launches short-range missiles for tests or as part of military drills.

It carried out its latest launches on Saturday.The United States and South Korean forces had been on heightened alert for a medium-range ballistic missile test in recent weeks amid tensions triggered by North Korea's nuclear test in February.

Ban said Pyongyang should resume negotiations."It is time for them to resume dialogue and lower the tensions. The United Nations is willing to help," Ban was quoted as saying.

Ban added that he hoped Russia would "use its contacts to lower the tensions and strengthen dialogue with North Korea.

"Moscow was Pyongyang's most important ally in the Soviet era, although its influence over the nation has waned considerably in the past two decades as its financial assistance to North Korea shrinks.

UN chief says intn’l conference on Syria may be held in early June

UN chief Ban Ki-moon said on Sunday that an international conference on Syria may be held in early June, Russia’s RIA-Novosti news agency reported.

The statement came following Mr.Ban’s consultations with permanent UN Security Council members, including Russia, the United States, Britain, France and China.

Mr. Ban said that the conference may be held under the UN’s aegis, something that he said is yet to be discussed.

Voice of Russia, AFP, RIA

This story first appeared on Voice of Russia & is reposted here with permission.

News Report: North Korea missiles moved away from launch site

North Korea has taken two Musudan missiles off launch-ready status and moved them from their position on the country's east coast, U.S. officials told Reuters Monday. This development followed weeks of concern that Pyongyang was poised for a test-launch.

For weeks last month, North Korea had been spewing belligerent threats aimed at South Korea and the United States.

The North's rhetoric intensified after the U.N. Security Council voted in March to slap tougher sanctions on the regime and against the backdrop of U.S.-South Korean military drills in the region.

Meanwhile Pentagon spokesman George Little, who declined to comment directly on the missiles, told reporters "what we have seen recently is a provocation pause".

"And we think that's obviously beneficial to efforts to ensure we have peace and stability on the Korean peninsula."

This story first appeared on Voice of Russia & is reposted here with permission.

News Report: N Korea allegedly preparing fourth underground nuclear test

North Korea could perform a fourth underground nuclear weapons test at Punggye-ri, the site of its previous test. Pyongyang appeared to be making preparations for the test, according to a South Korean government source speaking to the country’s Joong Ang Daily newpaper.

This comes on the heels of the South’s defense ministry reports that Pyongyang could perform a mid-range missile test-launch by Wednesday – also the deadline it has given to foreign diplomats to evacuate, as their safety would reportedly no longer be guaranteed by the government.

“We have detected increased activity of labor forces and vehicles at the southern tunnel of the test site in Punggye-ri, where the regime has worked on maintenance for facilities since its third nuclear test in February,” one of South’s top government officials said. He added that “the activities appear to be similar to those before the third test, so we are closely monitoring the site.”

The official went on to say that the South Korean government “were also tipped off that Pyongyang would soon carry out an additional nuclear test… but we are analyzing if it is indeed preparation for an additional test or if it is just to pressure Seoul and Washington.”

There is, however, speculation of a possible provocation by the North, following an alleged loading of mid-range missiles onto mobile launchers and storing them away from prying eyes in facilities on the east coast. National Security Adviser Kim Jan-Soo said “there are no signs of a full-scale war as of now, but the North will have to prepare for retaliation in case of any local war.”

North Korea declared itself a nuclear power in 2005, and in 2006, 2009 and 2013 conducted underground nuclear tests, which have led to protests from the international community.

This story first appeared on Voice of Russia & is reposted here with permission.

News Report: LIMA 2013 - Russia boosts its submarine exports to Asia

Kilo (Project 636) Submarine

During the Langkawi International Maritime and Aerospace exhibition (LIMA 2013) taking place in Malaysia, Igor Vilnit, the CEO of the Russian developer of submarines Rubin, reported on the progress of a number of development projects aimed at exporting Russian submarines to Asian countries. Vasily Kashin, an expert at the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, analyzes the situation.

This year Vietnam will receive the first of six Project 636 submarines it has ordered. At present, the first Vietnamese submarine, which was named “Hanoi”, is already undergoing testing. At the beginning of this year the Vietnamese team of the future vessel started its training in Russia. Simultaneously, Russian specialists are building in Vietnam the entire necessary infrastructure for using the submarines and training the submarine personnel.

One cannot exclude the possibility that the transfer to Vietnam of the Project 636 submarines will go more quickly than what was stated by Rubin’s CEO, - suggests expert Vasily Kashin. It is known for a fact that the second submarine of the Vietnamese order has already been launched, while the third one is expected to be launched in August. It is quite possible that this year Vietnam will get two submarines and another one in 2014. All six submarines have to be transferred to Vietnam by the end of 2016.

News Report: The Second Korean War is inevitable – British expert

Since the 1950s the Pyongyang regime has been continuously issuing claims that North Korea was actively preparing for another invasion by South Korea and its close ally, the US. Official press releases from the North Korean government which were warning the potential adversaries of the regime’s offensive posture have almost become legendary. As a result, South Korea and the US now tend to ignore these claims as absurd. Ben Woodward of the East-West Institute contends, however, that neglecting Pyongyang’s threats might eventually play Old Harry with American and South Korean policymakers. As events and the regime’s rhetoric turn even more ominous, US and South Korea might soon find themselves involved in the Second Korean War before they know it. 

When North Korea's army suddenly launched a full-scale invasion of the South in June 1950, throwing an already tense international situation into outright crisis, American policymakers reacted with understandable alarm, scrambling to organize an immediate military response. Since that time a lot has changed.  While no American leader wishes for yet another conflict in Korea, US policymakers have learnt to ignore the threats of the Pyongyang regime. America is no longer alarmed by numerous offensive statements and a sustained high level of North Korean military readiness.

On the one hand, such a relatively relaxed posture on the part of the US is understandable. According to Mr Woodward, ”since the 1950s it has been a ‘good’ tradition of all successive North Korean leaders to respond dramatically, and, every-so-often, hysterically, to every action and statement they did not favour. As a result, it has become increasingly difficult to assess exactly what might trigger a militarized response on the part of the Pyongyang regime”. Indeed, it remains largely unclear what might push North Korean leadership over the edge and cause it to lash out its military might.  Mr Woodward speculates that it could be an internal struggle within the regime, but this remains a very unlikely perspective. In this sense, US might indeed be justified to sustain a rather relaxed posture toward Pyongyang.

News Report: China concerned over Obama flexibility on missile defense

Nikita Sorokin

A week ago, the United States announced a decision to reorient the planned missile defense system to North Korea’s direction. In this connection, a step was made to scrap the fourth phase of its missile defense system in Europe. It means that no SM-3IB missile interceptors will be deployed on the territories of Poland and Romania by 2020.

This factor may enable Russia to finally op its perennial spat with America over a spate of painful issues related to missile defense, according to Richard Weitz, columnist from World Politics Review and senior fellow with Hudson Institute in Washington. Weitz argues that the problem may be resolved by Russia paying no attention to further development of the US missile defense system in Europe. The previous three stages of this system will soon be completed, while the fourth phase will be transformed into the deployment of additional 14 interceptors in Alaska and the second radar station in Japan. Also, Washington is mulling creating one more interceptor base in California in the future.

News Report: Iran to destroy Israel cities of Haifa and Tel Aviv if attacked – Supreme leader

Iran’s most powerful authority, Ayatollah Ali Khemenei, said the Islamic Republic would raze the cities of Tel Aviv and Haifa “to the ground” if Israel launched a military strike against it.

“At times the officials of Israel threaten to launch a military invasion, but they themselves know that if they make the slightest mistake the Islamic Republic will raze Tel Aviv and Haifa to the ground,” Ayotollah Ali Khamenei said during an address on live state television.

Obama said Thursday time is running out for a diplomatic solution.

"Iran must know that time is not unlimited. I have made the position of the United States clear: Iran must not get a nuclear weapon,” he said.

News Report: China & Russia may mediate Korean Peninsula problems

Xi Jinping offers mediation in inter-Korean settlement

China’s President Xi Jinping has offered mediation in a settlement of problems between South Korea and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

He said peace and stability in the region are in line with the essential interests of regional population, including the people of China.

He voiced hope that other countries will also contribute to finding peaceful solutions to the Korean Peninsula problems.

The situation on the peninsula has been aggravated by the launching of a North Korean satellite and Pyongyang’s third nuclear test.

This story first appeared on Voice of Russia & is reposted here with permission.

--

Moscow may act as mediator between Washington and Pyongyang

US Special Representative for North Korea Policy Glyn Davies is currently staying in Moscow. At the talks with Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Igor Morgulov he discussed a sharp worsening of the situation on the Korean Peninsula. 

The reason for a new and very acute crisis on the Korean Peninsula was the toughening of the sanctions of the UN Security Council (UNSC) in response to Pyongyang’s carrying out a satellite launch and an underground nuclear test, Head of the Korea and Mongolia Department at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences Alexander Vorontsov says.

News Report: Russia's Defense Minister starts his visit to Myanmar, Vietnam

Sergei Shoigu (Wiki Info - Image Wiki)

On Saturday, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu begins his visit to Myanmar and Vietnam, where he will hold talks on military and political cooperation.

In Myanmar, Shoigu is to meet the country’s army chief General Min Aung Hlaing to discuss bilateral military and technical collaboration as well as the situation in the Asia-Pacific region.

In Vietnam, Shoigu plans to visit the Kamran naval base that was previously used as a maintenance center for the Russian Pacific Fleet’s warships.

This story first appeared on Voice of Russia & is reposted here with permission.

News Report: Russia supports India's inclusion in UNSC

Russia will support India’s inclusion in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) as a permanent member in case it is reformed, Speaker of the Russian Federation Council Valentina Matviyenko confirmed this Tuesday, meeting with the Chairman of the lower house of the Indian Parliament Meira Kumar in New Delhi, a Voice of Russia correspondent reported.

Matviyenko said that earlier Russia supported India’s inclusion in the UNSC as a non-permanent member for 2011-2012. Russia, China, the USA, Britain, and France have been the permanent members of the UN Security Council since its foundation.

This story first appeared on Voice of Russia & is reposted here with permission.

News Report: N.Korea warns US forces of "destruction" ahead of war drills

Voice of Russia, Reuters

North Korea on Sunday warned the top US military commander stationed in South Korea that his forces would "meet a miserable destruction" if they go ahead with scheduled military drills with South Korean troops, North Korean state media said.

Pak Rim-su, chief delegate of the North Korean military mission to the inter-Korean truce village of Panmunjom, gave the message by phone to Gen. James Thurman, the commander of the US Forces Korea, KCNA news agency said.

It came amid escalating tension on the divided Korean peninsula after the North's third nuclear test earlier this month, in defiance of U.N. resolutions, drew harsh international condemnation.

A direct message from the North's Panmunjom mission to the U.S. commander is rare.

North and South Korea are technically still at war after their 1950-53 conflict ended in a truce, not a peace treaty.

The U.S.-South Korean Combined Forces Command is holding an annual computer-based simulation war drill, Key Resolve, from March 11 to 25, involving 10,000 South Korean and 3,500 US troops.

This story first appeared on Voice of Russia & is reposted here with permission.

News Report: China to buy Russia’s state-of-the-art Su-35 jetfighters

Wiki Info - Image: Wiki Commons

Voice of Russia, Interfax

China will buy Russia’s state-of-the-art jetfighters Su-35.

An intergovernmental agreement to that end was signed in January, with the parties due to start consultations on drawing up a contract to that end at an early date, Deputy Director of the Federal Service for Military Technological Cooperation Vyacheslav Dzirkaln has told reporters.

He failed to specify the number of aircraft to be supplied to China, but said that Beijing will get the aircraft that will be ready for operational service.

Su-35 has been designed by the Sukhoi Design Office. It is an updated air-superiority multipurpose jetfighter that makes use of the fifth-generation technologies.

This story first appeared on Voice of Russia & is reposted here with permission.

News Report: From licensed assembly to joint production - India wants to produce Russian tanks T-90C

Image: Russian Gov via Wiki Commons

India is interested in continuing the licensed production of Russian T-90C tanks. This came in a statement by Chief Executive of the Russian-Indian tank contract, General Director of "Uralvagonzavod" scientific industrial corporation Oleg Siyenko at the IDEX-2013 arms fair. On Monday, a Russian T-90C tank participated in a dynamic demonstration of technical equipment at the exhibition in Abu-Dhabi, and earned a lot of praise from experts.

On the basis of total characteristics, today the T-90C tank is the best tank on the international market. According to Siyenko, "there are hundreds of already manufactured tanks". This tank is produced on the base of the Russian license at a tank factory in the city of Avadi, in the state of Tamil Nadu. Today, the T-90C tank is the main striking force of the Indian army. India is interested in transition from the currently existing large-unit assembly to complete localization of production and subsequent modernization of the previously jointly manufactured machines. According to estimations of experts, in 2014-2019, India can additionally purchase about 600 new, modernized T-90C tanks and start their complete licensed production on the spot.

News Report: Russian-Japanese territorial dispute can be settled by display of will

The territorial dispute between Russia and Japan can only be settled by mutual display of will by the two countries’ leaders, says the former Japanese Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori in a statement.

He was speaking in an interview with reporters in the run-up to his departure for Moscow in the capacity of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s special envoy. Japan claims four Kuril islands, namely Iturup, Kunashir, Shikotan and Habomai, making references to the 1855 Russo-Japanese Treaty on Trade and Borders.

Tokyo has made a return of the islands the condition, on which Japan would be ready to sign a peace treaty with Russia, a treaty that was never signed in the wake of the Second World War.

But Moscow points out that the southern Kuril Islands formed part of the USSR as a result of the war, so Russia’s sovereignty over the islands, formalized in official international documents, is unquestionable.

This story first appeared on Voice of Russia & is reposted here with permission.

News Report: North Korea vows to launch satellites, missiles, conduct nuclear tests

North Korea has vowed to keep putting satellites into space, launch long-range missiles and conduct a larger-scale nuclear test, as a warning to its “sworn enemy,” the United States.

In an announcement by the state Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) the regime accused the US of pushing the UN Security Council to adopt a resolution which extended sanctions against Pyongyang.

KCNA said America's anti-Korean stand proved that Washington was hostile towards the ideology and social order chosen by the Korean people and was trying to use the satellite launch as a lever to topple North Korea’s leadership.

In the statement, Pyongyang said denuclearization talks hadn’t worked and vowed to protect its sovereignty with tangible counter-measures.

This story first appeared on Voice of Russia & is reposted here with permission.

News Report: North Korea plans to carry out new nuclear test, threatens to target US

North Korean state media has said that Pyongyang plans to carry out a third nuclear test and more long-range rocket launches, which it says will be targeted at the United States.

The announcement by the country's top military body came a day after the United Nations Security Council agreed a U.S.-backed resolution to censure and sanction the country for a rocket launch in December that breached U.N. rules.

"We are not disguising the fact that the various satellites and long-range rockets that we will fire and the high-level nuclear test we will carry out are targeted at the United States," North Korea's National Defence Commission said, according to state news agency KCNA.

North Korea is believed by South Korea and other observers to be "technically ready" for a third nuclear test, and the decision to go ahead rests with leader Kim Jong-un who pressed ahead with the December rocket launch in defiance of the U.N. sanctions.

Voice of Russia, RT, Reuters

-- 

Will sanctions stop North Korea from nuclear tests?

Konstantin Garibov, Alexey Lyakhov

On December 12, 2012, North Korea launched a space rocket. Although the North Korean authorities claim that this was a part of the country’s program of peaceful space exploration, rockets of this type may be used for military purposes as well. The authorities of many countries assessed this step of North Korea as a violation of a ban to test nuclear weapons and launch ballistic missiles, which was introduced against North Korea several years ago.

Recently, the UN Security Council unanimously adopted a resolution which added more economic sanctions to those that were introduced against South (North) Korea for similar tests in 2006 and 2009. These sanctions, in fact, are blocking North Korean companies, that produce rockets or missiles or have to do with the nuclear power industry, from being financed from any sources outside North Korea.

The newly adopted resolution extends this ban on North Korea’s Committee of Space Technologies, four North Korean corporations that purchase equipment for development of nuclear missile technologies, and North Korea’s Bank of East Land. It is through this bank that money from abroad has come to North Korea in spite of bans introduced by UN Security Council.

Russia and China voted for the recent resolution of the UN Security Council, although Russia insists that such measures against South Korea should be more thoroughly worked out. Russia’s Permanent Representative in the UN, Vitaly Churkin, suggests that for this, the UN should use all the mechanisms that are in its disposal. Besides, Russia insists that the members of the Security Council and all the institutions and companies that are in this or that way touched by these sanctions should clearly realize all the possible consequences of these sanctions.

As it might have been expected, North Korea has rejected the UN resolution, as it already did with similar resolutions in 2006 and 2009. Moreover, North Korea’s authorities have said that their response to this resolution will be further development of their country’s military might. It is not ruled out that this “military might” may include nuclear weapons as well.

Besides, North Korea has announced that it is withdrawing from talks of the 6 countries, which are aimed at total liquidation of nuclear weapons both in South Korea and in North Korea.

“These talks have been held, with several interruptions, for already 10 years,” Konstantin Asmolov from the Russian Institute of Far East says. “Besides the two Koreas, other participants are the US, China, Russia and Japan.”

“The fact that North Korea is withdrawing from these talks is a rather dangerous sign,” Mr. Asmolov says. “However, it has already withdrawn from these talks several times – and returned again. Most likely, it will do the same this time as well.”

It should be noted that initially, China was against new sanctions against North Korea. China’s authorities were concerned that this may only provoke North Korea towards more tests of nuclear weapons, as in the spring of 2009. That time, after the UN condemned North Korea for launching a rocket, North Korea answered by testing a nuclear bomb. So, China insisted that this time, instead of sanctions, the UN should limit itself to issuing a statement of the UN Security Council’s Chairman, which would condemn the launch of the North Korean rocket.

However, after long talks between the US and China, US diplomats have persuaded China’s representatives in the UN to vote for sanctions against North Korea. When China’s ambassador in the UN Li Baodong voted for them, he suggested that besides economic sanctions against North Korea, the world community should try to search for diplomatic ways to persuade the North Korean authorities to refrain from new rocket launches and nuclear tests.

This story first appeared on Voice of Russia & is reposted here with permission.