The Russia-China relationship is perhaps one of the most intriguing relationships of contemporary times. Are they ‘comprehensive strategic partners’, as they proclaim? The answer is ‘yes’ and ‘no’.
Are they rivals? The answer is again the same: ‘yes’ and ‘no’, depending upon which particular sectors of the globe you are looking at and what areas of activity you have in mind.
And when it comes to India – in the framework of South Asia or Indo-Pacific, or Southeast Asia or Central Asia – the Russo-Chinese equation gets all the more muddled and befuddled!
Here is an attempted explanation, though the caveat from this writer is that such an explanation is bound to be in the mode of volatile changeability, depending on the fast-evolving global strategic environment.
To take the last point first, the Sino-Indian-Russian strategic triangle is a study in real-politik.
Submarines are an important area. No, we are not talking here about the sinking of INS Sindhurakshak on the midnight of August 14 in Mumbai naval dockyard as it is an entirely different story.
Construction of submarines is one area where the three powers – India, China and Russia – find themselves in cross-currents of geo-politics. Here is how.
China has been developing submarines at a pace which indicates the need for sudden enhancement in its submarine capability. With increasing focus on disputes in the South China sea and other regions, China has realised the need for consistency in building its underwater operational capabilities. In this connection, China has commenced construction of new Yuan class submarines at Jiangnan Shipyard in Shanghai. Submarines of this class are already being manufactured at Wuchang Shipyard.
Inputs also suggest that Jiangnan Shipyard under China State Shipbuilding Corporation (CSSC) has been assigned to build two-Yuan Class submarines. A recent sighting and imagery report of a Yuan Class submarine at the Jiangnan Shipyard confirms the same. This indicates that submarine construction expertise is growing outside of the purview of China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (CSIC). However, there are no indications so far that CSSC is involved in ‘submarine design work’, which suggests that these ‘companies and their design institutes’ share submarine design and construction information.
China is also seeking assistance from Russia in this regard. The Russian shipbuilding industry got a deal from China in March 2013 to sell four submarines to China – two of which will be built in Russia and two in China.
This is the first time in a decade that Russia has obtained a big-ticket defence purchase order from China, though neither side has officially quantified it in terms of monetary value.
The next generation advanced conventional submarine (ANGSS) jointly developed by Russia and China will be significantly different from the Russian LADA class. The Russian industry will install a number of Chinese technologies and sub-system on the foundation of LADA/AMUR submarine, including the AIP technology, and develop probably a brand new class of Chinese edition of next generation conventional submarine.
Russian LADA class is equipped with AIP technology based on ‘fuel cells technology’, whereas currently the Chinese AIP submarines are based on ‘Sterling engines technology’.
Some inputs indicate that since many of the sub-systems, including the cutting-edge Sonar, EW and data-link technology of the LADA class are highly classified, it will not be exported to China.
Therefore, Russian shipbuilding industry feels that even if the official contract is signed, it will be implemented in several phases. Russians have not yet discussed plans and technical details of joint development of next generation advance submarines with China and the discussions are still at a very initial stage.
Now coming back to the first two questions raised at the beginning of this article – whether Russia and China are strategic partners or rivals – here is an attempt to piece together the zigsaw puzzle of the Sino-Russian relationship.
Earlier this month, Russia conducted its biggest military maneuvers since the Soviet times in its far eastern region, involving 160,000 troops, 5000 tanks and 130 fighter aircraft. The drills on Sakhalin Island in the Pacific were watched by Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Russia had notified all its neighbours about the exercises and had elaborately explained the motive behind these exercises to China.
Yet, an unmistakable message was sent to China and many experts saw these exercises as a subtle warning to China. The Russian message to China, implicit in these exercises, was: do not harbor expansionist plans.
Probably this was the best way for Russia to tell China that a rising China should not take Russia for granted!
Moreover, the way geo-politics is panning out in Southeast Asia and Central Asia, Russia and China are not on the same page. At a time when China has been upping its ante in Southeast Asia for the last five years or so and is involved in maritime boundary disputes in the South China Sea, Russia has maintained a stony silence on the subject.
To rub it further on China, Russia has even signed commercial deals with Vietnamese companies for joint exploration and exploitation of oil and gas in those very South China Sea waters that are being claimed by China.
In Central Asia also the Russians are wary of the increasingly marauding Chinese influence in the region which the Russians regard as their backyard. Uzbekistan is the only among the five Central Asian nations whose trade with Russia is more than with China.
The Russians are also not unmindful of the vast oil-gas pipeline network that the Chinese have already set up in Central Asia.
The unfolding enigmatic Sino-Russian relationship should be the most exciting to watch. And one should not forget in this context the ‘I’ in the BRICS set up – India.
*The writer is a New Delhi-based columnist and a strategic analyst who can be reached at bhootnath004@yahoo.com. Twitter @Kishkindha
This story first appeared on Voice of Russia & is reposted here with permission.