Since the 1950s the Pyongyang regime has been continuously issuing claims that North Korea was actively preparing for another invasion by South Korea and its close ally, the US. Official press releases from the North Korean government which were warning the potential adversaries of the regime’s offensive posture have almost become legendary. As a result, South Korea and the US now tend to ignore these claims as absurd. Ben Woodward of the East-West Institute contends, however, that neglecting Pyongyang’s threats might eventually play Old Harry with American and South Korean policymakers. As events and the regime’s rhetoric turn even more ominous, US and South Korea might soon find themselves involved in the Second Korean War before they know it.
When North Korea's army suddenly launched a full-scale invasion of the South in June 1950, throwing an already tense international situation into outright crisis, American policymakers reacted with understandable alarm, scrambling to organize an immediate military response. Since that time a lot has changed. While no American leader wishes for yet another conflict in Korea, US policymakers have learnt to ignore the threats of the Pyongyang regime. America is no longer alarmed by numerous offensive statements and a sustained high level of North Korean military readiness.
On the one hand, such a relatively relaxed posture on the part of the US is understandable. According to Mr Woodward, ”since the 1950s it has been a ‘good’ tradition of all successive North Korean leaders to respond dramatically, and, every-so-often, hysterically, to every action and statement they did not favour. As a result, it has become increasingly difficult to assess exactly what might trigger a militarized response on the part of the Pyongyang regime”. Indeed, it remains largely unclear what might push North Korean leadership over the edge and cause it to lash out its military might. Mr Woodward speculates that it could be an internal struggle within the regime, but this remains a very unlikely perspective. In this sense, US might indeed be justified to sustain a rather relaxed posture toward Pyongyang.
On the other hand, Mr Woodward suggests that “US reluctance can potentially result to one of the major miscalculations of the recent decade: America might simply fail to recognize the signs of impending attack”. “After all”, the expert continues, “every armed conflict where US was recently engaged began with a profound miscalculation”. One has to admit, however, that miscalculation always occurred on both sides of the barricades: as American political elites continuously misunderstood the intent of their opponents, their adversaries underestimated US determination and military readiness. According to Mr Woodward, the current political situation in North Korea could repeat this pattern in which case the Second Korean War will become unavoidable.
The expert predicts the Second Korean War to begin either with Pyongyang’s missile strike against US and South Korean targets, or a major military invasion on the South. Among the two possible scenarios, the second seems to be more likely since North Korea has been long preparing for a conventional military invasion on its Southern neighbor. Once the war beings, it is going to be long and extremely costly. In this regard, Mr Woodward asserts that “first of all, while North Korean armed forces are rather backward, they are huge. North Korea is probably the most militarized country in the world. The US would need to mobilize a significant army to fight such an enemy”.
Initially, this would mean involving the military’s existing reserve component, but as the conflict would progress America would have to expand its military capabilities including training infrastructure and the defense industrial base. In the light of its recent efforts to cut governmental spending, this would be a huge problem for America. Second of all, the war will be costly and protracted because North Korean populace is being brainwashed on a regular basis, which means that the population will fiercely resist any foreign invasion. In this respect, Mr Woodward urges the US to learn from its debacle in Iraq: “where national population had been fed a steady diet of propaganda there will be widespread, protracted, and vehement resistance”. Third of all, after a ceasefire North Korea would need massive relief, as would South Korea and Japan if Pyongyang used nuclear weapons. Pacifying North Korea and developing a stable and effective regime would require a lengthy occupation and significant funding on the part of the US. This, in turn, might lead to yet another shock to the global economy.
Interestingly, Mr Woodward argues that should the war come, American problems would not end there. China would pose the most pressing and serious challenge US military operation in North Korea. After all, it was Chinese intervention that ultimately saved North Korea after it crossed the 38th parallel in 1951. In this sense, Mr Woodward claims that the Second Korean War could exacerbate already existing hostilities between the China and the US, and might even lead to a new cold war.
On a more general note, the Second Korean War would most likely represent economic and humanitarian disaster of epic proportions, and, thus, it should be avoided at all costs.
This story first appeared on Voice of Russia & is reposted here with permission.