Editorial: 5 APAC Security Trends to Watch in 2015

By Robert Farley

Flashpoints‘ Robert Farley outlines five trends to follow in the Asia-Pacific in 2015.

As 2014 begins to recede from memory, here are some situations we can expect to develop over the next year:

• We may get some clarity on what to expect from Russia in East Asia over the course of the next year. Russia ended 2014 on a low note, isolated from the international community and struggling with a collapsing economy. Moscow has attempted to recoup some of its losses by developing more significant energy and trade relations with China, and 2015 should give us a better sense of Beijing’s receptivity to these overtures. At the same time, Russia’s intention to sell more military equipment to regional rivals like Vietnam may strain relations with China.
• The F-35 continues to struggle, with the latest reports indicating significant problems with its targeting systems. 2015 should give us a better handle on the JSFs export prospects in the Asia-Pacific, as South Korea and Japan still have the opportunity to make key decisions on the plane’s future.

Read the full story at The Diplomat

Editorial: Will Northeast Asia's 2015 Be Overshadowed by War History?

By Ankit Panda

2015 is the 70th anniversary of the end of the Second World War. How will Northeast Asia handle the milestone?

Longtime Diplomat readers might remember that the final days of 2013 were slightly more turbulent than the final days of 2014, at least as far as Northeast Asian diplomacy was concerned. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe decided to visit the controversial Yasukuni Shrine at the end of 2013, drawing sharp reactions from both South Korea and China. While Yasukuni may no longer realistically be on Abe’s agenda since Japan’s economic woes look to have returned, leaving relatively less political capital available for nationalist muscle flexing compared to the situation in late-2013. Despite this, the fact that 2015 is the 70th anniversary of the end of the Second World War means we’re in for an interesting year in Northeast Asia regardless.

While the anniversary itself is a somewhat arbitrary milestone, the occasion will understandably draw statements of reflection from across the world and Northeast Asia is no exception. How Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) more conservative elements, including Abe himself, conduct themselves in the coming year will have important ramifications on the continuing salience of historical issues in keeping Japan from resolving its ongoing differences with China and South Korea. 

Read the full story at The Diplomat

News Story: China forges ahead in fighter jet export market

China is capable of exporting modern fighter aircraft to developing countries while at the same time upgrading the technical standards of its own domestic aircraft manufacturing industry, according to Russian media cited by China's nationalistic tabloid Global Times.

The FC-1 Xiaolong fighter, also known as JF-17 Thunder, is suitable for use by developing countries that cannot afford fifth-generation fighters, the article said. The Xiaolong is a more affordable solution for these countries, as they are less likely to be attacked by stealth aircraft and have no need to carry out long-range strikes, the paper said.

The Xiaolong is made of composite materials, which makes it lighter and improves its stealth capability. Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) may even replace the fighter's Russian RD-93 engine with an indigenous turbofan engine if there proves to be sufficient demand. China is also considering whether it should allow countries which cannot afford to buy the aircraft outright to rent fighters.

Read the full story at Want China Times

AUS: ADF maritime patrol aircraft to return

RAAF AP-3C Orion Maritime Patrol Aircraft (File Photo)

Two Royal Australian Air Force AP-3C Orion maritime patrol aircraft will return to Australia today after Indonesian authorities commenced recovery operations following the discovery of debris from AirAsia flight QZ8501.

The two Orions, which left RAAF Base Darwin yesterday, recovered into Royal Malaysian Air Force Base Butterworth following their search flights. However, Indonesian authorities have advised that ADF assistance is no longer required.

The ADF will continue to maintain two liaison officers at Indonesia’s National Search and Rescue Agency (BASARNAS) and the Australian Defence Force stands ready to provide further assistance.

Our thoughts and prayers are with the family and friends of the victims at this difficult time.

AUS DoD

AUS: Coalition committed to defence projects

The Coalition Government is committed to increasing its investment in Australian defence infrastructure.

Reports of massive job losses in the industry are speculative and nothing more than cheap Labor scaremongering tactics.

Labor’s promises on defence have no credibility: immediately following its 2009 White Paper, Labor cut or deferred $16 billion from the Defence budget out to 2016-17.

Over the last six years, defence spending dropped to levels not seen since 1938. 

The former government’s decisions led to 119 defence projects being delayed, 43 projects being reduced in scope and eight projects cancelled, risking critical capability gaps.

Under the Coalition more than $1 billion worth of defence work is continuing in South Australia alone, including 44 separate acquisition projects such as the Air Warfare Destroyer programme, the support and upgrade of the RAAF’s P3 Orion aircraft fleet, and upgrades to ANZAC Class Frigates and the Army’s communications systems.

This is (in) addition to $34 million on the Future Submarine program – building our competencies and knowledge base in cooperation with industry.

Over the next four years – subject to the outcomes of the Defence white paper – there will be up to $4.2 billion in defence spending for building and sustaining defence materiel.

Australia will acquire eight P8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft and we have committed to the acquisition of the highly-capable Triton Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV).

This Government will continue to invest in its defence industry to ensure the safety and security of all Australians.

AUS DoD

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PacificSentinel: Sigh, the first statment from the new "Coalition" Defence Minister & it's just  more of the same old "Labor Party" bashing nonsense as the last guy, it's time for the "Coalition" to grow up & get on with the job of protecting the nation.

News Story: Xi Jinping orders patrol ships closer to Diaoyutai - Asahi Shimbun

China's patrol ships in the East China Sea have come closer than ever to the disputed Diaoyutai (Diaoyu or Senkaku) islands from mid-December, under direct orders from Xi Jinping, according to Japan's Asahi Shimbun.

From August, Chinese ships had generally kept at a distance of 200 km from the islands, at what has been called the "halfway line" between China and Japan, but in mid-December this policy saw a sudden shift, with two patrol boats coming within 27 km north of the Diaoyutai's surrounding waters and within 70 km of the islands themselves, the paper said.

The ships were a destroyer with a full load displacement of 7,940 tons and a frigate with a full load displacement of 2,392 tons. The Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force sent a patrol ship to monitor the situation. A Chinese military official was cited by the paper as saying that the order for the change in policy came from President Xi Jinping himself.

Read the full story at Want China Times

News Story: Thailand and China to extend military, defense collaboration

China and Thailand reached an agreement to accelerate their defense industry collaboration on Dec. 23 amid strengthening ties, reports UK-based IHS Jane's Defence Weekly.

Premier Li Keqiang of China and Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha of Thailand said at a meeting in Beijing that they will enforce mutual collaboration in strategic fields including national defense, trade and investment, information and communication technologies, and aerospace.

The two neighboring countries also plan to expand cooperation in the areas of defense industry and military exercises, military training and education, and regional security and anti-terrorism activities.

Read the full story at Want China Times

News Story: China launches frigate for Bangladesh navy

A new type of frigate built for the Bangladesh Navy was launched in the riverside city of Wuhan in central China's Hubei province on Tuesday.

The frigate, with a displacement of 1,300 tons and maximum speed of 25 knots, is 90 meters long and 11 meters across the beam. It can accommodate 80 crew members.

It will be the most advanced frigate in the Bangladesh Navy, which will be a boost to its coastal defense capability and the China-Bangladesh friendship, said Rear Admiral Syed Abu Mansur Arshadul Abedin, the assistant chief of Naval Staff at the launching ceremony.

Read the full story at Want China Times

Editorial: Vietnam a Growing Threat to Taiwan’s South China Sea Claims - Report

Itu Aba, which Taiwan calls Taiping Island (File Photo)

By Prashanth Parameswaran

Taiwan weighs Vietnam’s threat to its military outpost in Itu Aba

Vietnam’s military expansion on nearby islands could threaten Taiwan’s lone outpost in the South China Sea, according to a new report submitted to Taiwan’s Control Yuan.

The report, published by the Ministry of National Defense, noted that Vietnam’s deployment of mobile missiles and artillery guns on island bases could pose a threat to Taiwan’s military outpost Itu Aba (which Taiwan calls Taiping Island), the largest feature in the Spratly Islands which is also claimed by Vietnam, the Philippines and China.

Of particular concern are moves by Vietnam to expand its troop presence in Sand Cay Island, including by deploying new shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles (known as Dunqian Sand Island in Chinese Son Ca Island to the Vietnamese) – which lies just 11 km east of Itu Aba. If Vietnam plans on deploying these portable missiles close to Itu Aba, the report says it could attack Taiwan’s C-130 military transport planes and supply ships on their routine visits to Taiping Island. 

Read the full story at The Diplomat

Editorial: The Philippine Navy’s Submarine Quest

German Type 209 Patrol Submarine (Unrelated Example)

By Koh Swee Lean Collin

How realistic are plans for the Philippines to acquire submarines?

During a modernization briefing on December 17, Philippine Navy (PN) vice-chief Rear Admiral Caesar Taccad revealed future plans to acquire at least three submarines, as part of a follow-up to the ongoing 15-year P90-billion Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) modernization program.

The South China Sea disputes are no doubt a key motivation, when the rear-admiral remarked that “the events in the West Philippine Sea actually gave some urgency on the acquisition,” referring to the overall PN plan to purchase new assets, including a ten-year timeline for submarine purchase.

The PN’s 15-year Strategic Development Plan, revolving around the “Philippine Fleet Desired Force Mix” envisages a surface, sub-surface and aerial assets including major “big-ticket items” such as six anti-air warfare-oriented frigates, 12 corvettes optimized for anti-submarine warfare (ASW), 18 offshore patrol vessels, three submarines, three mine countermeasures vessels, up to four Strategic Support Vessels (SSVs), up to eight Amphibious Maritime Patrol Aircraft, and 18 naval helicopters equipped for ASW. Not counting a significant number of coastal patrol assets, fleet auxiliaries and other aerial support platforms.

If all purchase options are to be exercised, a sustained long-term funding commitment is required. In May 2012, the PN authorities remarked that the upgrade will cost P500 billion ($11.1 billion). It is not certain whether the plan can survive the incumbent Aquino administration, which has thus far demonstrated zeal in propelling modest but nonetheless significant acquisitions (within available fiscal means), including two new-build SSVs and two former U.S. Coast Guard cutters. 

Read the full story at The Diplomat