Think Tank: The Pacific - Russia’s newest playground. Don’t be surprised, Australia!

Jacqueline Westermann

At the 2017 Munich Security Conference, Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov announced the end of the post–Cold War world and Russia’s aim to build a ‘post-West’ world order. That caused a huge outcry, mostly among Western governments. The fact that Russia had indirectly mentioned the idea before went almost unnoticed.

In his speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue on 5 June 2016, Anatoly Antonov, former Russian deputy minister of defence and most likely the next ambassador to the US, highlighted Russia’s interest in the Asia–Pacific. He said Russia was looking for partners in the region to create ‘an equal and indivisible security environment’ serving everyone, and that it wanted to ‘enhanc[e] [its] military ties with the Asia–Pacific countries in order to strengthen peace and stability’.

The link? Simple: following the cooling of Russia’s relations with the US and Europe, and the fading of mutual expectations of prosperous cooperation after the end of the Cold War, Russia has to look—and is looking—for alternatives. That became evident in 2015 when the presidents of China and India, not European or American leaders, sat next to President Vladimir Putin during the victory parade in Moscow commemorating the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II. Western leaders had boycotted the event because of the annexation of Crimea and Russia’s involvement in the conflict in Eastern Ukraine. Meanwhile, Putin’s choice of guests presented a hint at Russia’s future priorities.

USA: U.S. Forces Work With Partners in Numerous Military Exercises

By Terri Moon Cronk 

DoD News, Defense Media Activity

WASHINGTON, July 17, 2017 — Military exercises are underway between U.S. military forces and those of many other nations, Pentagon spokesman Navy Capt. Jeff Davis, told reporters today.

In the Pacific region, Exercise Talisman Saber 2017 involves more than 33,000 U.S. and Australian personnel who are participating in the biennial military training exercise in Australia, June 23 to July 25.

U.S. Army, Navy, Marine Corps and Air Force personnel, as well as Australian forces and members of other government agencies in both countries are participating in Talisman Saber, which is jointly sponsored by the U.S. Pacific Command and the Australian military's Joint Operations Command.

It features 21 ships, including the U.S. Navy aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan, the Bonhomme Richard Expeditionary Strike Group, and more than 200 joint aircraft. This year's seventh iteration of the exercise is focusing on training a combined task force of U.S. and Australian forces in a mid-intensity, high-end warfighting scenario, incorporating interagency participation, along with a command post exercise involving a transition between a three- and four-star headquarters.

"Talisman Saber provides an invaluable opportunity to conduct operations in a combined, joint and interagency environment that will increase both countries' ability to plan and execute contingency responses, from combat missions to humanitarian assistance efforts," Davis said.

News Report: Trump Names India, Russia Among Countries Affected by Terrorism

US President Donald Trump listed India along with Russia, China, Australia, Europe and the Middle East as victims of terror in his address to the Arab Islamic American Summit in Saudi Arabian capital Riyadh on Sunday.

New Delhi (Sputnik) — Trump's speech, which mostly focused on fighting terrorism and extremism during the summit and conveniently ignored the other issues plaguing the Middle East and Africa, has been greeted with optimism and hope in India.

Media reports on the event have also created euphoria that New Delhi is very high on Washington's agenda in the fight against terrorism. Experts noted that the US, India cooperation on terrorism has grown and both countries are sharing information and collaborating on many related fronts. But they also reminded that more concrete steps need to be taken with like-minded countries in the fight against terrorism, instead of getting into a celebratory mood over symbolic statements.

News Story: Rejection of EU funding could affect Mindanao peace projects

MANILA, Philippines — Rejecting aid from the European Union could cut support to peace-building programs in Mindanao like livelihood assistance in Moro Islamic Liberation Front camps and the delivery of basic services to conflict-affected communities.

In December, the EU approved P200 million in additional funding until 2018 for the Mindanao Trust Fund, a multi-donor grant facility funded largely by the EU.

According to past reports, the money will be used to "support the Philippine government’s efforts in monitoring the situation, defusing tension and creating an inclusive political platform that will unite the people of Mindanao."

The MTF said on its website that it supports "programs and projects that promote economic opportunity, provide access to basic services and build social cohesion to help create stable and secure communities."

Read the full story at PhilStar

News Story: Large-scale land warfare focus of new Army operations field manual

By: Jen Judson

HUNTSVILLE, Ala. -- The Army’s newest capstone doctrine on how it fights in the present will focus on large-scale land warfare, Combined Arms Center commander Lt. Gen. Michael Lundy told Defense News.

The CAC, at Fort Leavenworth, Kansas, is the proponent for modernizing the force to conduct Unified Land Operations, Combined Arms Operations and Mission Command, which produces doctrine, organization, training, materiel, leadership, personnel, facilities and policy -- known as the DOTMLPF-P.

Lundy teased out some of the major elements of the field manual's organization in an interview at the Association of the U.S. Army’s Global Force Symposium last week as the center prepares to publish the field manual this fall.

“What we’ve been doing for the past 14 to 15 years -- even though we’ve been executing Unified Land Warfare -- over that time we haven’t been doing large-scale land warfare, so that is a very different focus than what we have,” Lundy said. 

The Army’s last field manual was released in 2008  that guides training, leader development and operations. It was focused on “Full Spectrum Operations” which describes the Army having to not only focus on defeating enemies but, at the same time, shape the situation through operations that stabilize the area. 

Potential adversaries are looking a lot more like peers with equal capabilities and the ability to deny and deter freedom of movement in various domains, which means the Army is going to have to change the way it has grown accustomed to fighting -- mainly counter-insurgency operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. 

Read the full story at DefenseNews

News Story: 1914 Redux? Growing Asia-Pacific Tensions Demand New US Strategy

By MAJ. PAUL SMITH

American Secretary of State Rex Tillerson is paying his first visit to Asia this week. Just before he left, Acting Assistant Secretary of State Susan Thornton told reporters the Trump Administration “will have its own formulation” of the Pacific pivot, or the rebalance to Asia declared by the Obama Administration.

“Pivot, rebalance, etcetera — that was a word that was used to describe the Asia policy in the last administration. I think you can probably expect that this administration will have its own formulation. We haven’t really seen in detail, kind of, what that formulation will be or if there even will be a formulation,” she said.

In this timely op-ed, Maj. Paul Smith, who works in the J-9 of U.S. Pacific Command but is, of course, writing in a personal capacity, compares today’s international security situation to that preceding World War I and sees worrying parallels. He calls for a reassessment of our strategy toward China. Read on. The Editor.

The global environment today eerily resembles that of Europe in the early twentieth century, when a rising tide of nationalism swept through the continent. That nationalism led to increased trade competition, networks of intertwined and complicated alliances and social and political ferment that sparked a war that eventually spread to engulf much of the world in the flames of World War I.

Are we headed towards another global conflict? If so, then where? Most importantly, can this crisis be averted?

The geopolitical climate most similar to pre-war Europe lies within the Asia-Pacific. This region consists of a highly complex web of interwoven treaties and alliances, is home to the world’s most formidable rising power, and has historical flashpoints, that if triggered, could lead to armed conflict. These same issues had been present in Europe for years before the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand began the chain of events that eventually plunged, first Europe then much of the world, into the Great War. 

Read the full story at Breaking Defense

News Story: Trump's nuclear wake-up call could rekindle arms race with Russia

U.S. President Donald Trump

BEIJING, Feb. 26 (Xinhua) -- U.S. President Donald Trump's recent nuclear wake-up call has aroused alert and vigilance on the Russian side and could risk setting off a new Cold War-style nuclear arms race between Washington and Moscow, observers say.

Trump, in an interview with the Reuters news agency in the Oval Office on Thursday, expressed his dissatisfaction with the New START Treaty and declared the aim of ensuring the U.S. nuclear arsenal "at the top of the pack".

Analysts believe that if the United States gives up the nuclear balance of power adopted by past U.S. administrations and resorts to unilateral advantages, U.S. nuclear arsenal expansion would make U.S.-Russian relations more complicated and take the bilateral relationship toward a dead end.

Read the full story at Xinhua

News Report: Panel to Senate: Moving U.S. Forces Forward Key to Deterring Russia, China

US Marines disembark an MV-22 Osprey in Australia during a
Military Exercise (File Photo)

By: John Grady

Stationing more U.S. forces forward is key to reshaping the American military to deter future Russian and Chinese ambitions in Europe and the Pacific and it can be done now, four defense experts told the Senate Armed Services Committee on Thursday.

Bryan Clark, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments said — using the seizure of Crimea as an example — sending forces in later “would look like we’re trying to change the facts on the ground.” This makes the response look like an act of aggression.

“We’re going to have to prevent those things [from happening] in the first place,” he said.

Thomas Donnelly, resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, said the United States needs to think about China, a continental power, in broader terms than its maritime influence. Now, “a continental power is going to sea,” but historically it has been at odds with Vietnam and India and challenged on land.

News Story: Air Force Adds Pacific To F-35s’ Foreign Deployments

By COLIN CLARK

CLARIFIED: What MG Harris Really Meant

CAPITOL HILL: The Air Force’s first operational squadron of F-35s will head to the Pacific, in addition to the European deployment recently departed Air Force Secretary Deborah Lee James discussed in December.

The news came in the form of one sentence today in the written testimony today of Maj. Gen. Jerry Harris, deputy chief of staff for strategic plans, programs, and requirements before the House Armed Services air and land subcommittee: “Our first operational squadron is scheduled for additional deployments this calendar year to include a Theater Security Package Deployment to Pacific Command.”

CLARIFICATION BEGINS: At first and second read, this seems to say that the Air Force is sending its F-35As first to the Pacific. But an Air Force spokesman said the F-35As are still heading to Europe first, per James’ comments. The key phrase here is “to include.” The Pacific deployment will ALSO happen, but after the one to Europe. At least, that’s what I was told.

So this adds a deployment to China on top of the one to Europe. This shift from a European deployment to one in the Pacific is notable as then-Secretary James told reporters five days before Christmas that the F-35As would make their first overseas deployment to Europe this summer. because it appears to signal a strategic signal by the Trump Administration to China — and perhaps one to Russia — that the U.S. will up the ante in the South and East China Seas. CLARIFICATION ENDS

Read the full story at BreakingDefense

News Report: US Allies Worry About Joint Intel Operations Under President Trump

Jeff Seldin

WASHINGTON — Some U.S. allies are increasingly uneasy about the future of joint intelligence endeavors with Washington as they try to figure out just how much President Donald Trump plans to shake up the existing order.

The concerns are still in the early stages, with most of those willing to share their thoughts expressing a willingness to give the Trump administration more time to get people in place at the various agencies and departments. 

But many also admit that the ongoing lack of communication combined with what, at times, appears to be contradictory messages from the White House, key departments and even from President Trump himself, is starting to strain ongoing efforts.

"It's hard to know for sure," one Western diplomatic official told VOA on condition of anonymity, when asked about the future of intelligence cooperation with the U.S.

"So much of the administration is not in place," the official said, cautioning that despite the many remaining vacancies there is already a sense Trump prefers some allies to others.

News Story: Jim Mattis begins to build Donald Trump's bigger, deadlier military

US SecDef Jim Mattis

By: Andrew deGrandpre

Defense Secretary Jim Mattis has directed Pentagon budget planners to lay the groundwork for an ambitious rebuilding effort, one that will, in the near term, address President Trump's desire to bring more military force to bear on the Islamic State while also growing the United States' capacity to oppose "high-end competitors" such as Russia and China. 

Mattis issued the directive Tuesday, distributing a memo that maps out in broad terms a number of objectives, including actions meant to address what military leaders see as immediate readiness shortfalls, and to add an unspecified number of military personnel and support structure in the months and years to come. The overarching priority, according to Mattis' memo, is to "build a larger, more capable and more lethal joint force," and that will come by way of a new national defense strategy, the memo says. 

READ THE MEMO: Mattis' budget directive

First, the Pentagon will prepare a budget request for the remainder of 2017. That's due to Deputy Defense Secretary Bob Work by March 1, the memo says. 

After Trump's election, in a move anticipating his desire to rethink military spending at large, Congress approved a defense spending plan only through the winter. Mattis' effort will focus on infusing cash where it's needed to speed the Islamic State campaign, and on enabling the military to keep up — or even step up — its presence in other parts of the world where the U.S. has pressing strategic interests. That's likely to include regions such as Eastern Europe, the South China Sea and several unstable pockets throughout Africa. 

Read the full story at MilitaryTimes

USA: Deployments Bolster U.S. Presence in Western Pacific, Europe

By Karen Parrish

DoD News, Defense Media Activity

WASHINGTON, Jan. 5, 2017 — Pentagon Press Secretary Peter Cook announced operational deployments that will boost U.S. presence in the western Pacific and in Europe.

“Ships and units from the Carl Vinson strike group will depart San Diego for a regularly scheduled deployment to the western Pacific,” Cook told Pentagon reporters today.

Approximately 7,500 sailors will deploy and focus on maritime security operations, theater security cooperation efforts and bilateral exercises, he said.

Armored Brigade Combat Team Headed to Europe

Separately, Cook said, the United States is demonstrating its continued commitment to collective security through a series of actions designed to reassure NATO allies and partners of America’s dedication to enduring peace and stability in the region in light of Russia’s intervention in Ukraine.

“Tanks, trucks and other equipment are scheduled to arrive in Europe this weekend, beginning a nine-month rotation of U.S. Army forces supporting Operation Atlantic Resolve,” the press secretary said.

The arrival of troops and equipment from 3rd Armored Brigade Combat Team, 4th Infantry Division, out of Fort Carson, Colorado, marks the beginning of the presence of an ABCT and back-to-back rotations of U.S. troops and equipment in Europe, he added.

After the equipment arrives at Bremerhaven, Germany, it will move by rail, commercial line haul and military convoy to Poland, Cook said. Troops and equipment will later be relocated throughout the region for training and exercises with European allies.

“This effort is part of our European Reassurance Initiative to maintain persistent, rotational presence of air, land, and sea forces in Central and Eastern Europe,” he said.

US DoD

News Report: Experts to Senate - Trump Needs to Reassure America’s European, Asian Allies

By: John Grady

The incoming Trump administration needs to go out and reassure publicly and privately our allies that the United States will honor its commitments and do what is necessary to meet new challenges, particularly from Russia and China, three security experts testified Tuesday.

At the Senate Armed Services Committee hearing, Robert Kagan, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said.

There’s a background here not only of campaign rhetoric over burden-sharing, defending the NATO Baltic States, etc., but the Obama’s administration’s not following through on what it said it was going to do if “red lines” were crossed, Kagan said.

But on top of that recent history, the new administration “also has to dig out of a hole of its own making” by what President-elect Donald Trump and campaign officials said publicly before the election.

The hearing was part of a continuing series the committee has held this year looking to reform defense personnel and acquisition policies and how to meet new security challenges.

Gen. Jack Keane, USA, a retired vice chief of staff of the Army, said in dealing with Russia and China the Trump administration must show “strength and resolve.” “We have to be so superior in our capability that our adversaries won’t challenge us.” If the United States doesn’t have the intent to use its military capability to counter aggression, there’s no deterrence.

News Story: Mixed Signs for Foreign Military Sales Under Trump

By: Aaron Mehta and Pierre Tran

WASHINGTON AND PARIS — Foreign military sales (FMS) are a critical foreign policy tool, one used to bind partners to America while bolstering interoperability on US systems — and providing a boost to domestic industry.   

The administration of US President Barack Obama has made good use of FMS, setting records for foreign weapons sales in 2015 and coming close in 2016. But as President-elect Donald Trump’s administration spins up, the future of US sales abroad is unclear.

As with everything related to the Trump administration at this point, there is little hard evidence to go by. But analysts are watching closely for signs of what might come. In particular, there is concern that two areas of strong sales — the Gulf region and Europe — could be impacted by either the policies of the next administration or the statements of the next president. 

Analyst Byron Callan, of Capital Alpha Partners, wrote to investors the day after the election, noting some of Trump’s campaign positions could impact foreign weapon sales. 

“We would expect if countries increase spending, it would be to the benefit of their own industries and not necessarily favor US defense firms,” Callan wrote to investors, adding: “If a Trump administration takes a harder line on Muslims, that may also bear on US defense exports to some Middle Eastern and Asian countries.” 

Doug Berenson, managing director with Avascent, agrees there are potential roadblocks from Trump policies but stresses that a lot is still in the air.   

“I think there is a chance that many European countries could get nervous about what this means, about the reliability of the US as a supplier,” Berenson said. “But I think it’s too early to assume that would be the outcome.”

Read the full story at DefenseNews

News Report: Pakistani Lawmakers See Sinister Designs in China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

China’s ambitious plan to build an economic corridor across Pakistan may not be what it seems. At a Senate hearing, some Pakistani Senators expressed reservations about the $ 46 bn China Pakistan Economic Corridor

New Delhi (Sputnik) — Pakistani Parliamentarians fear China's stated goal of opening up an economic corridor from its hinterlands to the warm waters of the Indian Ocean via Pakistan may be a red herring.

Pakistani Members of Parliament fear that China may use the proposed corridor from Xinxiang to Gwadar Port to forge links with other countries including India. 

The concern were expressed during the Senate Standing Committee meeting to deliberate on Pakistan's planning and development priorities. They fear the CPEC project will help China explore new avenues of trade with India, Central Asia and Europe rather than Pakistan. 

Pakistani Parliamentarians also suggested that China will be inclined to use the corridor to expand its trade with India far outstrips the Sino- Pakistan commerce by value.

India has been opposing the China Pakistan Economic Corridor on the grounds that it will cut through Pakistan Administered Kashmir which it claims.

The $46 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor stretches from Kashgar in China's western Xinjiang province to the port to Gwadar in Pakistan on the Arabian Sea.

This story first appeared on Sputnik & is reposted here with permission.

News Report: Trump Comments on Withdrawing US Forces from Asia Raise Alarm

Image: Flickr User - KAZ Vorpal

Steve Herman

STATE DEPARTMENT—Alarm is being expressed following the 2016 Republican Party presidential nominee’s latest comments questioning the need to keep nearly 80,000 U.S. military personnel in Northeast Asia.  

In an interview with The New York Times, Donald Trump said the presence of American troops in South Korea were “no guarantee we’ll have peace” on the Korean Peninsula, and he asked “what are we getting out of this?” by having troops, aircraft, ships and bases in Japan.

The United States has long-standing alliances with Japan and South Korea to provide for their defense if they are attacked, and a key element of the Obama administration’s foreign policy has been a strategic “pivot” to Asia, which Trump apparently desires to reverse.

“It scares the hell out of you” to hear a major political party nominee saying these things, former Vice President Walter Mondale, a Democrat who served as ambassador to Japan from 1993 to 1996, told VOA. "It’s a stunning moment in American history.”

Trump, in the Times interview, also said “maybe you would have had a unified Korea” if U.S. forces had withdrawn from the peninsula after the 1953 armistice that halted with a stalemate a bloody and devastating three-year war.

News Story: East Sea - Seeking power, China faces confrontation (European View)

It is surprising that policymakers in China, perhaps bedazzled by their nation’s impressive aggregate power development, have not realized that their confrontational policy over the last years has triggered an Asian reaction," said Dr. Enrico Fels from the University of Bonn, Germany in an interview with VietNamNet.

VietNamNet would like to introduce the second part of the interview with Dr. Enrico Fels on a number of issues about the East Sea disputes (internationally known as the South China Sea).

Read Part 1 first and then part 2 at VietnamNet

News Story: Global Military Spending Grows For First Time Since 2011

Aaron Mehta

WASHINGTON — Global military expenditures topped $1.6 trillion in 2015, an increase of about 1 percent from the previous year, according to a new report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

That represents the first increase in global military spending since 2011, with growth coming from Asia and Oceania, Central and Eastern Europe, and a few key Gulf powers, as well a slower defense drawdown in the US than in previous years.

SIPRI’s military expenditure report is released annually to track overall defense spending on a global scale. (To coincide with the release of the report, SIPRI is hosting an event on Tuesday at the Washington, DC-based Stimson Center, where the author of this piece will be a panelist.)

The group defines “military expenditures” as current and capital spending from each nation’s armed forces, including peacekeeping forces; defense ministries and other government agencies that deal with defense projects; paramilitary forces, when judged to be trained and equipped for military operations, and military space activities.

Read the full story at DefenseNews