By Casey Michel
Beijing may not, after all, provide the economic deus ex machina Central Asian governments have hoped for.
Ever since the Eurasian recession began in earnest — or, predating that, when it was clear that Russia’s economic engine would stall under Vladimir Putin’s third term — there has nonetheless been a source of hope for Central Asia’s economies: China. On the backs of China’s One Belt, One Road (OBOR) platform, Beijing has stepped in to provide Central Asian economies with the necessary trade, transport, and internal investment to offset a reeling Russia and sinking hydrocarbon prices. For the past few years, China has stood as the region’s economic trump card — a rising Chinese tide would, as the regional governments assumed, raise their fortunes as well.
Despite China’s recent economic troubles, there was little outward sign that this prognostication would change anytime soon. The OBOR’s schematics proceeded as planned, and the recent rail transit from China to Iran further illustrated the potential integration Beijing can provide.
But even as Beijing denies any external ramifications from its current economic slowdown, a bit of news may call into question the notion that China can serve as an economic out for Central Asia. As Raffaello Pantucci, the director of International Security Studies at the Royal United Services Institute, wrote this week, “softening domestic gas needs have led to the suspension of the Line D gas line bringing hydrocarbons from Turkmenistan to China through Uzbekistan.” The suspension appears to stem, in part, from a decision out of Tashkent, with Interfax reporting that Uzbek officials said “technical reasons” necessitated the postponement.
Read the full story at The Diplomat