By Robert Manning
Can the bloc really be a U.S. strategic partner?
OK, OK, I get the symbolism, but it is a measure of how devalued the language of diplomacy can be that US President Barack Obama would hold an unprecedented summit at Sunnylands in California with ten heads of state whose countries comprise the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to talk of a “strategic partnership.”
The February 15-16 meeting is intended to underscore the U.S. “rebalance” toward Asia, but it is more political theater than strategy. Yes, the nations of ASEAN total 625 million people, make up an economy of $2.4 billion, and individually are important economic partners of the United States with a combined bilateral trade of $260 billion and a similar level of U.S. FDI in all ASEAN countries in 2015.
With regard to defense, longtime US allies like the Philippines and Thailand, and burgeoning security partners such as Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Indonesia – all alarmed at China’s assertive behavior – are important actors helping to undergird the regional security architecture built from the core of forward-deployed US forces and alliances. But in defense, too, most serious business is done with the United States bilaterally.
Obama is to be commended for his initiative to elevate Southeast Asia and showcase the importance of the region to U.S. interests. If he uses the summit to highlight the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement; economic and defense cooperation; and ASEAN support for an open, rules-based order, it may be worth the effort.
But it is delusional to portray ASEAN as a viable collective actor that has more than a marginal role in the regional political/security order. Of course, leaders talking is better than not talking. But after two decades of such multilateralism, regional security is more at risk than ever. If you ask the question: if ARF (ASEAN Regional Forum) and EAS (East Asia Summit) and other such acronyms disappeared tomorrow would Asia be any less secure, the answer is no.
Read the full story at The Diplomat