By Van Jackson
It’s time to apply anti-access thinking beyond China — or risk losing a limited conflict to North Korea.
When we think about anti-access warfighting concepts, we typically think of China. Think again. The technologies that make an anti-access approach to coercion and combat possible have proliferated throughout Asia, including to North Korea. The strategists, policymakers, and contingency planners who make up the U.S.-South Korea alliance must begin thinking about North Korea in these terms, or risk coming up on the losing end of a limited conflict.
In The Diplomat and in a conference where I recently presented on North Korean nuclear strategy, I’ve explained why North Korea seeks an assured retaliation nuclear posture, and why in the midst of a conflict that posture will likely shift to an asymmetric escalation posture. In practical terms, the former implies North Korea would withhold nuclear weapons use to conduct second-strikes in retaliation if attacked, while the latter implies that North Korea would be willing to launch nuclear first-strikes.
North Korea’s choice of nuclear strategy matters for a number of larger questions, like where its nuclear weapons are likely to be located, why it wields nuclear weapons, and how it’s likely to do so. But no matter what type of nuclear strategy North Korea chooses, it’s the North Korean military, the Korean People’s Army (KPA), that would implement that strategy by developing a military campaign plan outlining what forces and weapons would be employed, as well as how those resources would be employed. In this respect, North Korea is no different than any other national military; modern warfare is sufficiently technical and complex that it’s practically impossible for civilian policymakers (who are often laymen in defense affairs) to generate and execute a military campaign. Modern militaries are technocracies.
Read the full story at The Diplomat