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| Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte |
By YUN SUN
An International tribunal ruled emphatically in July against Chinese claims to large portions of the South China Sea, acting on a case brought to it by the Philippines. China was furious and threatened many of its neighbors, while also trying to convince them to work with the PRC to resolve the conflicting claims. Then came the new President of the Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte. He appeared to flip Filipino policy on its head last week, declaring that his country would work with China. He has also said several inflammatory things about President Obama and other American officials, and he has declared the US had lost the battle for influence in the region. Now he’s said he has no intention of forging military alliance with China and is only interested in their money. This all puzzled us, so we contacted the Stimson Center and asked for their top expert on both the Philippines and China to explain just what is really happening and why. Yun Sun tells us. Read on. The Editor.
Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte’s declaration of a “separation” from its long time ally the United States and his observation that America has “lost” the battle for influence in the Pacific reveals a deeply embedded, complex psychological struggle about that nation’s history and identity.
While the vast majority of Filipinos have a favorable view of American colonial rule in the Philippines, the controversial defense cooperation between the two and a long-lasting image of the Filipinos being “little brown brothers” of the “blue-eyed enemy” arise from time to time and disrupt the alliance. In 1991, President Corazon Aquino forced the US troops to leave the country and closed the famous Naval Station at Subic Bay and storied Clark Air Base.
Manila’s shift from filing the case against China on the South China Sea and Duterte’s willingness to negotiate with China about the territorial disputes plays right into China’s efforts to prevent formulation of a Southeast Asian multilateral and regional position vis-à-vis China on the dispute. Duterte’s plan to end joint military exercises and naval patrols with the US will leave Washington with fewer options and less ground to expand its military deployment in the South China Sea.
This new foreign policy direction also undermines the future and effectiveness of the US Pacific pivot. The departure of one of America’s longest allies from the US alliance system would send a negative signal to other regional players about the desirability and sustainability of the US system of alliances and partnerships. While the two American presidential candidates have so far avoided much discussion about Duterte, the next administration will inevitably have some very serious problems to fix on the Manila front.
Read the full story at Breaking Defense