By Pierre-Olivier Bussieres
Why Russo-Indian relations matter.
As China’s One Belt, One Road policy unfolds in Central Asia, strategic alliances within the region are becoming increasingly complex. While existing partnerships are deepening, new opportunities are emerging for key South Asian players. India, a long-standing absentee in the region, may very well hold the key to the balance of power in Central Asia as a potential ally of Russia.
Missed Opportunities
India began to develop a presence in Central Asia following the collapse of the Soviet Union. In 2002, Russia and India signed an agreement to launch the International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC). In 2012, New Delhi devised its official Central Asian policy, a 12-point list aiming at increasing connectivity among the five Central Asian stans, taking advantage at the energy potential of the region and developing its banking sector. Opening roads to Central Asia, China’s prime objective in the region, has also been India’s priority for a decade. Ensuring that these roads aren’t carrying only Chinese goods, however, will remain a key priority for India as it does for Russia. This is one of the reasons why the two countries may both stand to gain significantly from active collaboration in the region.
Narendra Modi has been more proactive than his predecessors on Central Asia policy. The Indian prime minister toured the five Central Asian countries in July 2015. Among the multiple deals signed with Central Asian leaders, Modi secured an agreement with Kazakhstan to supply 5000 tons of uranium to Delhi for the next four years. The belated Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline was discussed with Turkmenistan, poised to take the lead on the project. Although a recent boom in construction, IT and pharmaceuticals has stirred the Kazakh, Turkmen and Uzbekistan economies, poor infrastructure and geographic distance has severely limited trade between India and the region.
Conversely, India figures relatively high in Central Asia. New Delhi enjoys a reputation as a neutral country. A former leader of the non-aligned world during the Cold War, its presence in Central Asia threatens neither China and Russia. India’s clearly stated willingness to engage in the multinational bodies associated with the region is a relief in the context of fears over Chinese and Russian dominance.
Read the full story at The Diplomat