By James L. Creighton and Martin Fleischer
There is an astounding optimism within the Afghan leadership. Is it justified?
In 2015, the Taliban made gains in Afghanistan–a not quite unforeseeable chain of events–but less expected were gains made by the Islamic State. In addition, in 2015 tthe economic consequences of coalition forces’ withdrawal began to be felt. However, there is an astounding optimism within the Afghan leadership. Is this optimism justified?
News from Afghanistan remains pessimistic. The litany of challenges facing the country has mounted as the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) fought through a tough fighting season. Despite these daunting challenges, President Ashraf Ghani maintains a positive vision of Afghanistan in the future. This might seem counter intuitive but there are opportunities for Afghanistan to engage regionally, in order to capitalize on the progress made in the last 13 years and take advantage of both the resources left behind by the coalition expansion and the natural resources that are readily available in the near term. Focusing on what can be done while working toward more aggressive objectives may be a way to keep Afghanistan slowly on a positive path.
The withdrawal of coalition forces left ANSF leaders with fewer critical combat systems they had come to rely on, such as close air support, medical support and coalition intelligence systems. The Army performance on the defense has been spotty at best. However, as the loss and subsequent retaking of Kunduz demonstrates, when they turn to the offense, they have been much more successful. The police force has been severely tested in Kabul and more recently in Kandahar. While the ability of the Taliban to attack in large cities has created a bunker type mentality where leaders and foreign representatives stay largely behind “Texas Wall” compounds, the Afghan National Police have been able to respond in good order to restore the peace.
The ANSF has a long way to go in order to be a completely effective fighting force, however; they have been good enough to keep the Taliban and emergent Daesh (Islamic State) threat at bay in the major cities and much of the rural areas.
Read the full story at The Diplomat