By Swati Arun
Geopolitics was back with a vengeance last year.
Realpolitik made a comeback in 2014. In the immediate post-Cold War-era, during those years when America enjoyed its unipolar moment, international politics as it had been usually understood seemed to have been eclipsed. The world began to focus more on the liberalization and globalization of the world economy, the spread of democracy, and the threats posed by non-state actors. The security dilemmas that are at the heart of relations between states seemed to lose appeal, although in reality the world hardly disarmed or ceased conflict.
Even if states thought that realpolitik was no more, they could not get away from the international system. In hindsight, it is clear that certain members of the system have always hungered for more power to rectify perceived wrongs and to restore an order to which they feel entitled. And so, more than two decades after the end of the Cold War, historical territorial disputes are reemerging.
For a long time, liberal scholars have emphasized the importance of economic integration as a protection against international conflict. But the argument that states will not jeopardize their relative economic gains by engaging in conflict and disrupting the peace is being challenged by the rise of China. A case study that might have established the validity of the peace-through-integration hypothesis, China has instead in recent years insisted on its own reading of international law and relations with its neighbors. Growing economic ties with the world did not integrate China globally nor did it subordinate its national interest to the interests of the world economy. From China’s perspective, the world is still an unreliable place and the realist principle of maximizing survival by maximizing power trumps all other notions. Policies that will help China achieve this goal are at the core of its strategic planning.
In this respect, China is no different from nations like Germany, Britain, and the U.S. in the past, in what has been a regular motif of the international system. But in pursuing its interests, China is fostering the creation of group of nations in East and South East Asia that are pushing closer to the U.S. in order to act together, if necessary, against the threat they see in China.
In what was an episode of failed U.S. strategy, Russia perceived the European Union’s advance into Ukraine as an encroachment on its national security. Moscow succeeded in grabbing Crimea, as well as the attention of the EU, which had apparently thought that wars between nations were passé. However, Russia’s audacious behavior has backfired, not only with sanctions but with the risk that what it fears most may now well transpire, as Ukraine is more desperate than ever to join NATO.
Read the full story at The Diplomat