By Robert Farley
As you watch East Asia in 2015, keep an eye on these four factors.
What will the future of war look like in East Asia? A recent conference at the Pandia Calogeras Institute, a think tank associated with the Brazilian Ministry of Defence, examined potential developments in warfare with an eye toward 2045. Here are several trends the group identified, with implications for thinking about how conflict may develop in East Asia:
A New Set of Security Players
Currently, states dominate the land and seascapes of geopolitics in East Asia. But as we’ve recently learned in the Middle East, and as we’ve long known in Latin America and elsewhere, sub-state and trans-state groups can loom large on the threat matrix. Ideological movements, ethnic groups, religious communities, and transnational criminal networks may reassert themselves in the Asia-Pacific, giving states something to worry about beyond a few uninhabited islands. Developments of this sort could drive interstate cooperation, and potentially change how regional militaries approach planning for war.
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