By Ankit Panda
With its new Kilo-class subs, Vietnam will implement an asymmetric area denial strategy against China.
As events this year have shown, the Vietnamese government won’t suffer any buyer’s remorse regarding its decision to invest in six Russian Kilo-class submarines in a 2009 deal worth $2.6 billion. The government’s decision to both purchase these submarines and incorporate them strategically into a burgeoning asymmetric anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) strategy were vindicated over the course of the dramatic saga earlier this year involving China moving its oil rig HYSY-981 into Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ). As far as Vietnam is concerned, international law, ASEAN, and even the naval might of the United States will do little to safeguard its territorial claims — it must move to deter Chinese irredentism by itself. Through its investments, Vietnam demonstrates an unwillingness to acquiesce to the age-old Thucydidean dictum that the “strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.”
Vietnam’s Kilos could significantly alter the current balance between China and Vietnam. Where earlier this year we saw Chinese and Vietnamese coast guard ships ramming one another off the Vietnamese coast, the presence of Vietnamese submarines would have largely deterred a Chinese incursion into Vietnam’s claimed exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the first place. Beijing knows this. It is pursuing anti-submarine warfare (ASW) as a priority, but continues to face challenges. For Beijing, the primary concern when it comes to naval scenarios has been defending against an adversary with advanced surface ships and submarines (read: the United States and Japan). This is something that its own investments in A2/AD systems will likely ensure. However, as a largely non-expeditionary force, the PLAN remains rather ill-equipped to stage an offensive against an opponent employing a submarine-enforced area denial strategy. As Robert Farley has described in these pages, most Chinese ASW systems, like the Type 056 Corvette, the Y-8 maritime patrol aircraft, and underwater acoustic sensors ”still depend on proximity to Chinese bases for effectiveness.” Further, the diesel-electric Kilos that Vietnam is slated to deploy are among the quietest submarines and are speculated to be more advanced than the PLAN’s 12 Kilo-class submarines. In sum, with its Kilo-class acquisition, Vietnam is tipping the balance in its favor and substantially increasing Beijing’s perceived risk in deploying its surface ships into waters claimed by Vietnam.
Read the full story at The Diplomat