By: Christopher P. Cavas and Jen Judson
WASHINGTON – Despite the churn in the U.S. capital as the new administration takes over, despite the attempted Muslim ban and despite President Trump’s “America first” proclamations, there is a sense among veteran U.S.-based Middle East observers that relations with the Gulf states are stable and might even benefit from the power changes.
The U.S., said veteran U.S. ambassador Ryan Crocker, has spent years negotiating transit and basing rights and establishing a stable military presence in the Gulf area.
“I do not expect to see those change under a Trump administration,” said Crocker. “They are low-cost to us and they have proven their value to us over and over. They are not objects of domestic criticism in this country or the host country. It’s a pretty good architecture.”
Owen Daniels, assistant director for the Middle East Peace and Security Initiative in the Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security, agreed.
“I would not expect to see as much flux. I think the countries that are in the Gulf are kind of taking a wait and see approach to the Trump Administration,” Daniels said. “From a perspective of opportunity, they see it as an opportunity to get closer to the U.S.”
Jim Phillips, a senior research fellow for Middle Eastern affairs at the conservative Heritage Foundation, is confident relations could improve.
“I think Gulf Cooperation Council members will be much happier with the Trump Administration’s policies on security issues than they were with the Obama Administration,” Phillips predicted. “The new administration has staked out a harder-line policy on Iran and on fighting terrorism than its predecessor. It is likely to quickly approve arms sales to Saudi Arabia and Bahrain that were held up by the Obama Administration and is likely to respond more strongly to Iran’s missile tests, arming of Houthi rebels in Yemen and naval harassment in the Persian Gulf.”
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