By SYDNEY J. FREEDBERG JR.
WASHINGTON: Wealth, population and thin-skinned nationalism make China the number one threat to the US-led world order, not Russia or Islamic terrorism, writes leading military strategist Andrew Krepinevich. That means the US must build up forward-deployed forces in the Western Pacific, he writes, if necessary at the expense of defending Europe. Russia’s oil-dependent economy and withering demographics relegate it to the second-place threat in the near term, he argues, and in the long term — say, by the 2030s — Russia may become less dangerous than Iran, which Krepinevich’s forthcoming study from the Center for Strategic & Budgetary Assessments ranks currently at No. 3.
That analysis puts Krepinevich starkly at odds with defense officials like Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Joseph Dunford, Army Chief of Staff Mark Milley, and Defense Secretary-designate James Mattis, who all put Russia first. (Mattis is also a hardliner on Iran). By contrast, Krepinevich argues that, if Russia really understood its own strategic interests, it would make common cause with the US against Islamic extremists — who have fought Moscow in the Caucasus for decades — and a rising China — whose emigres and industries are starting to take over mineral-rich but underpopulated Siberia. Don’t ask Krepinevich to endorse Donald Trump‘s outreach to the “very smart” Vladimir Putin, however. “We might be able to flip Russia to our side, because we’re not the problem they have,” Krepinevich told reporters, but not until the reflexively anti-American ex-KGB agent is out of power.
Unfortunately, Krepinevich emphasized, we can’t postpone a West Pacific buildup until Europe is safe. That may mean we can only afford a “tripwire” defense in the Baltic States, he said, just enough to “ensure some Americans get killed and we go to war if some ally or partner is attacked.”
President Obama had the right idea with the much-derived “pivot” or “rebalance” to the Pacific, Krepinevich said. He just failed to follow through, in part because new eruptions in the Mideast and Europe drew off US attention. “The pivot hasn’t kept up with reality, the actions haven’t matched the words,” Krepinevich said. “The balance of power in the Far East has shifted further and further in China’s favor.”
Read the full story at Breaking Defense