By Bruce Klingner
Pyongyang’s allegedly impending missile launch emphasizes the need for stronger action by Washington and its allies.
North Korea announced it will launch a long-range missile sometime this month, perhaps as soon as February 8. The regime claims the payload will be merely a civilian “earth observation satellite.” Even if true, United Nations (UN) Security Council resolutions specifically preclude Pyongyang from “any further launches that use ballistic missile technology.” Both Pyongyang’s promised missile launch and its January 6th nuclear test are unambiguous violations of UN resolutions.
In recent years, North Korea has extended the height of the gantry at the Sohae launch facility. This suggests they might test a larger missile with greater range. However, the intended splashdown locations announced for the first and second stages are nearly identical to North Korea’s December 2012 missile launch, indicating that this month’s missile will likely be another Unha-3. The 2012 launch successfully put a satellite into orbit, demonstrating the same technology needed to launch an ICBM.
South Korea recovered and analyzed the stages of the 2012 missile. The South Korean Minister of Defense subsequently testified that it had an estimated range of 10,000 km and could have reached the continental United States. In 2015, the U.S. commanders of U.S. Forces Korea, Pacific Command, and NORAD publicly assessed that Pyongyang now has the ability to hit the United States with a nuclear weapon.
In response to last month’s nuclear test, the United States is pushing for stronger UN sanctions on North Korea—something China again stiffly opposes. Though some experts have speculated that Beijing would adopt a tougher stance toward North Korea under President Xi Jinping, China continues to prevent a meaningful U.N. response. Indeed, Beijing has repeatedly criticized allied reactions to North Korean threats, attacks, and violations rather that the precipitating actions by Pyongyang. For example, China is currently pressuring Seoul not to deploy the THAAD missile defense system rather than confronting Pyongyang to abandon its prohibited offensive nuclear and missile programs.
Read the full story at The Diplomat