By Xue Li and Xu Yanzhuo
China will look to keep tensions in the South China Sea from impacting its ties with ASEAN.
China’s ties with the members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) remain stable and bilateral cooperation will likely deepen in the coming year. China is likely to accelerate its “One Belt, One Road” (OBOR) strategy, which will inevitably require cooperation with ASEAN countries. Meanwhile, China is willing to keep the South China Sea disputes stable.
On the economic front, an upgraded version of the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement was signed in November, 2015. However, negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which includes ASEAN members and the regional bloc’s existing FTA partners, will make limited advances to finalize an agreement, because some countries, like India, are reluctant to further open up domestic markets. In addition, economic dyads without bilateral FTAs, like China-Japan, South Korea-Japan, and India-Australia pose another obstacle. Generally, though, China-Southeast Asia relations will be improved next year, with more economic and cultural cooperation between China and ASEAN.
In the security realm, multilateral security cooperation, like joint military exercises based on the existing exericses between China and Malaysia, is likely. Meanwhile, tensions in the South China Sea may continue to flare up in 2016, but not as intensely as in 2015. Laos, which maintains friendly ties with China, holds ASEAN’s rotating presidency in 2016 and is unlikely to comment on the dispute in high-profile ways, such as a chairman’s statement (as happened in Kuala Lumpur in 2015).
Negotiations on the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea might make some progress in 2016. If Tsai Ing-wen, chairwoman of Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party, is elected to be Taiwan’s leader in January, China believes she will pursue de jureindependence. In this case, China’s maritime priority will shift to the East China Sea, especially the Taiwan Strait, which means China will take on a more restrained approach in the South China Sea. China will finish its construction on civilian facilities on expanded reefs and rocks to provide public goods to the region, including the two lighthouses brought into service in 2015. However, the possibility of further massive land reclamation is extremely low.
Read the full story at The Diplomat