By Tom Le
The new security bills risk disappointing both opponents and proponents.
Japan’s controversial security bills have passed the Upper House of the Diet, ushering in a new era in Japanese security policy. Although there was little doubt the bills would pass, the groundswell of disapproval from the public – drawing tens of thousands of protestors – and opposition lawmakers ensures the bills will be under close scrutiny for the months to come. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe contends the security bills will help protect Japanese at home and abroad, allow Japan to play a greater role in the international community, and fulfill its commitments to the US-Japan Alliance. Abe’s reassurance that the Japan Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) would still operate under strict regulations and Japan would not be entangled in foreign wars did little to appease the skeptical public: According to a recent Asahi Shimbun poll, 54 percent of Japanese do not support the security bills. As a result, the Abe administration has suffered a precipitous drop in its approval ratings over the last few months, a trend that is likely to continue.
Abe had painted himself into a corner, having promised to a Joint Meeting of Congress that the security bills would be passed by the end of summer back in April 2015. If the bills had failed to pass, especially after U.S. President Barack Obama reassured Abe that Japan’s dispute with China over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands was covered by the U.S.-Japan security treaty, the Alliance would have been suffered and Abe’s legacy, already marred by his resignation in 2007, would have surely been ruined.
Unlike the tepid support at home, Abe’s push for a more proactive Japan has been met with open arms by the U.S. government and Western security experts. Asia strategist Keith Henry likened Japan to a “42-year old kid still living in the basement of the United States,” and said that by adopting the new security bills it was finally “‘growing up’ and moving beyond vague concepts of peace and democracy that are no longer practical given today’s rapidly changing geopolitical landscape.” Yet, 42-year old kids tend not to adjust well to the “real world.” Japan will have difficulty fulfilling the new responsibilities brought on by the new proactive security posture. Beyond increased resistance to related domestic security issues due to passage of the bills, namely the Okinawan base and nuclear power plant issues, economic and demographic issues will hinder the growth of Japan’s security footprint.
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