11 August 2015

Editorial: What Crimea Tells Us About Asia's Future Wars

By Van Jackson

Several features of the Crimea conflict apply to the Asia context.

Crimea and the complex military occupation that now exists in Ukraine is an all too reasonable and underexplored model for future conflict in Asia.

When we think about conflict in Asia, a handful of flashpoints come to mind: the Taiwan Strait, East China Sea, and the Korean Peninsula. Increasingly the South China Sea. And when we think about how these conflicts might erupt, we almost inevitably imagine a confrontation in which two parties deliberately confront each other, a test of resolve occurs, and undesirable but essential escalation ensues. In essence, we imagine a deterrence game between national militaries that gets out of hand. Far from being unthinkable, sadly, such scenarios are by far the most thinkable.

But modern conflicts don’t really look like that, and futurists who concern themselves with war and strategy suggest a different model for what future conflicts and conflict processes might resemble: Crimea.

At least four features of the Crimea conflict apply to the Asia context: ethnic divides clashing with spheres of influence; non-state groups with geopolitical demands; the potential for unlikely partnerships between states and social groups; and gray zone conflict. Each of these characteristics was central to the Crimea conflict, but each constitutes a largely overlooked factor germane to Asia and the prospect of future conflict.

Read the full story at The Diplomat