By Charles Douglas Appleton
Understanding China’s decision-making process could help Japan create a better strategy.
“Our best chance of avoiding antagonism with China is to open up the black box of Chinese domestic politics, look inside, and figure out what makes China act as it does on the world stage.” - Susan L. Shirk (China: Fragile Superpower)
Perhaps the biggest takeaway from the latest “2015 Defense of Japan” White Paper is the manner in which it explicitly identifies China as Japan’s biggest security threat (with about one third of a section dedicated to China alone), particularly over issues of maritime security. While the Chinese Foreign Ministry and media were understandably defensive, the Japanese perspective raises some salient points (even if the focus on Chinese oil platforms in the East China Sea was perhaps misguided). Not only has modern China undergone a rapid and historically unprecedented ascent to near-superpower status, but its lack of governmental transparency and soft power deficit have failed to reassure its Asian neighbors. Combine this with growing Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea, and its ongoing military buildup (particularly naval), and it is not difficult to build a narrative in which Pacific Asia should be wary of a potential regional rival (one supported by the growth in overall Asian defense expenditure [PDF] compared to the rest of the world).
To be fair, this account fails to acknowledge China’s record of peacefully resolving territorial disputes. More worryingly, it also risks triggering the “politics of emotion” and a potential crisis. In the case of China, this becomes especially worrying given the dependence of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) on domestic Chinese nationalism as a source of political legitimacy. Only by unpacking this can one hope to better understand the thinking behind Chinese foreign policy.
Read the full story at The Diplomat