By Carl Thayer
China’s track record in the South China Sea is markedly different from those of the other claimants.
Greg Austin recently wrote in The Diplomat that Vietnam occupied 24 features in the South China Sea in 1996 and has “increased [this number] from 30 to 48 in the last six years” as if these figures were facts. I doubt there is any plausibility to his claim. It would be more accurate to point out that Vietnam occupied most of these features in the 1970s after reunification. Whether Vietnam has doubled the number of its features since then is highly unlikely.
In a paper just presented to the 66th Current Strategy Forum at the U.S. Naval War College in Newport, Rhode Island, I wrote, “U.S. officials also claimed that Vietnam occupied forty-eight features in the South China Sea. When Secretary of Defense Ash Carter visited Hanoi this June he called on Vietnam to permanently halt all land reclamation activities on these features. His Vietnamese counterpart, Minister of National Defense General Phung Quang Thanh, argued that “land reclamation” was being undertaken to prevent soil erosion. General Thanh also argued that Vietnam stationed military personnel on nine “floating islands” and twelve “submerged islands” or a total of 21 features.”
I attached the following footnote to my paper, “’Floating islands’ refers to features that are above the water or which can be built from submerged islands by adding steel structures, soil, rocks and concrete. ‘Submerged islands’ are reefs that are underwater.”
The United States should have published a list of all 48 features that it claimed Vietnam was occupying. Also, the U.S. should have provided specific details about the extent and purpose of Vietnam’s “land reclamation. According to information received, the U.S. figure may include separate structures on the same reef. I would caution about jumping to conclusions before the facts are in. Vietnam’s so-called “land reclamation” represents 1.9% of the total area of China’s newly constructed artificial islands. Vietnam does not have dredging machines like China, it brings in soil from the mainland.
The litmus test for construction activities in the Spratlys is whether or not they violate the letter and spirit of the 2002 Declaration on Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC). The DOC calls on all parties to “exercise self-restraint in the conduct of activities that would complicate or escalate disputes.” It is implausible to suggest that Vietnam is – to use Austin’s emotive language – “the aggressor” on the basis of evidence presently available or to conjure up a threat from the tiny specks of features that Vietnam occupies. China on the other hand placed self-propelled artillery on one of its features that is capable of shelling nearby Vietnamese-occupied features.
Read the full story at The Diplomat