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| Chinese Navy Warships on patrol (File Photo) |
By Dr. Bob Lee
How to stop the unthinkable from becoming the inevitable.
From time to time in recent years the clouds of war have gathered over the South China Sea, only to disperse as practical realities overtook rhetoric. Now the threat is back again, but in my view a full-fledged war is almost impossible to contemplate since cool heads on both sides will prevail. Nevertheless, many pundits are seemingly convinced that ultimately there must be a fight between the rising power and the incumbent.
Think about this: Two weeks ago at the annual Shangri-La Dialogue military summit, U.S. Defence Secretary Ash Carter demanded that the Chinese side make “an immediate and lasting halt” to territorial expansion in the Spratly Islands. But if China simply ignores his call and things go on as usual in the disputed waters, what is Uncle Sam supposed to do? The point I would like to make is that the world will and should get used to this new reality based on China’s ever increasing economic and military might. China is getting more assertive, if not aggressive, and in response the U.S. and Japan are becoming increasingly bellicose.
As such, a series of interesting questions arise here: If war is inevitable – the first direct military conflict between the two major powers since the Korean War more than 60 years ago – what is the likely scenario? Will the scale of the action involve just a fraction of their respective true national strength or would it be a defining showdown? Who will win? Will the U.S. lose its claimed supremacy over the Asia Pacific if the outcome duplicates that of the Korean War or Vietnam War? Or should China be defeated would its mighty economic growth come to a grinding halt? And its hopes of achieving the “China Dream” dashed just as it is on the verge of ‘’realizing the nation’s great rejuvenation”?
Let’s consider various ramifications below.
Read the full story at The Diplomat