By Scott A. Synder
Will South Korea’s interest in middle power diplomacy help or hinder its alliance with the U.S.?
The U.S. rebalance to Asia, the post–Sunnylands U.S.-China discussion of a “new type of great power relationship,” and most recently the emergence of an apparent Chinese challenge to U.S. global economic leadership through the establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) have naturally focused attention on U.S.-China relations. But the AIIB question in particular has highlighted the question of how countries caught between Washington and Beijing, including South Korea, will respond to increasing pressure from each great power on specific issues. The AIIB case also raises the question of whether South Korea’s own interest in middle power diplomacy will ultimately reinforce or conflict with the U.S.-ROK alliance.
I recently explored South Korean responses to the U.S. rebalance to Asia as part of the Seoul-based East Asia Institute’s project on South Korea’s middle power diplomacy. The project defines objectives for South Korean middle power diplomacy and makes recommendations for the South Korean government in the areas of trade, maritime security, climate change, development cooperation, and finance. The collection of papers provides recommendations and a template for evaluating the implications of a South Korea that is committed to playing a middle power role in regional and global affairs. My evaluation of South Korea’s aspirations to pursue middle power diplomacy is that to date these efforts have strengthened the U.S.-Korea alliance, but that in future there could be tensions on some issues between the alliance framework and South Korea’s aspirations to play a middle power role.
South Korea’s response to the U.S. rebalance thus far has been strongly supportive. South Koreans have regarded implementation of the rebalance strategy as credible, despite the overhang of sequestration; however, the credibility of the U.S. rebalance has probably owed more to the U.S. need to respond to North Korean threats than to the rebalancing strategy itself. The more challenging implications of the U.S. rebalance are related to increased U.S. expectations for South Korean cooperation with other U.S. allies and partners, especially in Southeast Asia but most notably including Japan.
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