By Robert Dujarric
With the U.S. increasingly engaged elsewhere, should Japan do more for regional security itself?
The U.S. pivot (or rebalance) towards Asia is America’s “I’m back” moment and a warning to China (to paraphrase The Terminator’s“I’ll be back” message). For Japanese who fear Chinese expansionism it is a welcome development.
But there is now a risk of a counter-pivot. A full-scale war with Russia is unlikely. But the invasion of Ukraine, combined with European disunity, vacillation, and weakness, ensures that Washington will focus more on NATO’s eastern borders in the coming months and probably years.
Meanwhile, the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, the implosion of Yemen, anarchy in Libya, the depredations of Boko Haram, disorder in Mali, the resilience of Al-Qaeda franchises, and other developments are sucking the United States back into the gigantic quagmire that ranges from the Atlantic coast of West Africa to Pakistan. Greater American military involvement, beyond a few targeted strikes and special operations missions, may serve no useful purpose. But Western societies, especially America’s, find it hard to accept that some problems are beyond their ability to solve. The United States could easily drag itself into a Global War on Terror 2.0.
At this point, predicting the extent of future U.S. deployments in the CENTCOM and AFRICOM areas of responsibility seems a fools errand. It could remain fairly small if Americans have the discipline to differentiate what is possible (not much) from desirable outcomes. But fears for the safety of the Persian Gulf oil fields, concerns about attacks at home, and moral outrage against Islamists could bring about a far larger long-term American engagement.
This would be bad news for Japan. The pivot could be partially reversed. China would more easily challenge the U.S.-Japan order in Asia. Asian nations, both enemies and allies, would doubt American credibility.
Can Tokyo alleviate the impact of the “counter-pivot”? It cannot stop it, but there are things that it could do that might limit the damage.
Read the full story at The Diplomat