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| Japanese Soryu class Submarine (File Photo) |
By Paul J. Leaf
‘As long as it appears that Taiwan has strong backers, cross-Strait peace is more likely.’
After waiting more than thirteen years for the U.S. to meet its offer to update Taiwan’s aged submarine force, Taipei recently announced plans to develop its own submarines locally. Taiwan’s willingness to assume a greater share of its defense is laudable. But Taipei has no experience building these complex vessels, and it is falling further behind China’s growing military power. It should thus acquire them sooner and more cheaply from Tokyo, with Washington openly contributing to blunt Beijing’s retaliation. If the U.S. and Japan refuse to strengthen Taiwan’s defensive capabilities, China will infer that its willingness to take Taiwan outweighs other nations’ readiness to stop it. That calculus would heighten the risk of a cross-Strait conflict, and raise doubts about Washington’s willingness to defend its other regional partners as China presses them in the East and South China Seas.
Submarines are valuable to Taiwan, even if they will not swing the China-Taiwan military balance in its favor. China, only 100 miles from Taiwan, threatens forcible unification. Modern Taiwanese submarines offer an asymmetric response, particularly because China’s anti-submarine capabilities are deficient. For instance, these vessels could contest a Chinese maritime blockade and attack Beijing’s amphibious vessels if China tries to invade the island by sea. Yet Taiwan fields a small, antiquated submarine force: two were acquired from the Netherlands in the 1980s and its remaining pair (used solely for training) was built in the 1940s.
Taipei has long-requested international assistance to modernize its submarines. In 2001, Washington authorized its purchase of eight diesel submarines. But that agreement remains unfulfilled because the U.S. stopped constructing such vessels in the 1950s (it uses nuclear-powered models) and had ceased operating them by 1990. That left Germany, Japan, and the Netherlands with the required expertise. Until this past April, however, Tokyo followed a self-imposed ban on exporting its weapons. And the Europeans balked for fear of sparking Chinese retaliation, as occurred after the Dutch sold Taiwan submarines in the 1980s.
Read the full story at The Diplomat