By Paul J. Leaf
China is playing nice for now, but there are cracks in its friendly smile.
After increasingly threatening its neighbors and the U.S., China has recently dialed down its aggression and is trying to woo these countries with promises of economic and security benefits. Some argue that China desires deeper integration into the existing American-led structure in Asia. But Beijing’s charm offensive is merely a temporary, tactical recalibration in service of its goal to remake that order. Indeed, China changed tack only after its provocations backfired by expanding its rivals’ cooperation to oppose its increasingly hostile rise. The U.S. and its Asian partners must intensify this trend because China apparently intends to continue its military buildup and expansion.
China seeks regional dominance, but it is too weak to immediately eject the U.S. from Asia. It is thus slowly chipping away at the American-led order by altering its neighbors’ perceptions of Chinese power and American defense commitments. Beijing wants others to believe that it is too strong to contest, is growing ever more powerful, punishes disobedient countries, and rewards compliance, while Washington is a declining power that cannot and will not meet its security guarantees.
To accomplish this end, Beijing is using carrots and sticks with careful calculation: wooing its neighbors with valuable trade and security packages and intimidating them with threats and displays of force. Indeed, through low-level confrontations with its rivals that do not individually justify war, China showcases the growing gap between its military power and that of its targets. Thus Beijing is demonstrating that those countries will avoid defending each other against Chinese pressure and largely paralyzing the U.S., which fears inciting a nuclear-power and significant trade partner. But Beijing seeks to avoid more serious incursions that risk inviting American retaliation and a balanced coalition. China must therefore constantly calibrate its foreign conduct to employ the optimal levels of attraction and pressure permitted by this approach.
Read the full story at The Diplomat