By Francisco Galamas
A look at Pyongyang’s missile and nuclear programs over the past 12 months, and the region’s response.
North Korea continued efforts to develop its missile and nuclear capabilities during 2014. Although the opacity of this Northeast Asian country makes any attempt to meaningfully assess the strategic potential of either North Korean program a difficult task, open source information can provide some insights into the progress it has made. Of particular importance are its advancements in nuclear infrastructure, the quantities of nuclear fuel produced, and the country’s ballistic missile program.
As 2013 drew to a close, new information emerged on the North Korean expansion of facilities linked to plutonium production. Satellite imagery showed significant advances in two new facilities used to produce fuel for the 5 MW reactor and the 25-30 MW Experimental Light Water Reactor (ELWR). Already in April 2013 North Korea had announced its intention to restart the 5 MW plutonium reactor, after it had been suspended in 2007. This claim was confirmed in the “Worldwide Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community” report (PDF) presented in January 2014 by James Clapper. Nine months later, the IAEA confirmed the operational status signs present in the North Korean 5MW reactor.
Throughout 2014, several accounts mentioned a reactor shutdown. That procedure usually raises concerns in policymaking circles as it is usually associated with the withdrawal of spent fuel for plutonium reprocessing. Expert analysis of the available evidence indicated that there were no signs of spent fuel removal and that the shutdown was most likely linked to maintenance (PDF) procedures. Still, recent disclosed, yet inconclusive, data suggested that the ten-week suspension of this reactor could have included activities that went beyond maintenance work. Considering progress on the ELWR, reports by the middle of 2014 were claiming that, once finished, the facility could generate between 30 to 40 kilograms of plutonium – enough for five to six nuclear warheads – several times more than the 5 MW reactor can currently yield.
Read the full story at The Diplomat