By Vasilis Trigkas
Classical antiquity offers a lesson in the perils of economic warfare.
“That decision may be judged irrational or merely a miscalculation of likely consequences, but it is like many similar ones throughout history in which passion inspired by old hatreds and wounded honor are the cause of dangerous actions.” - Donald Kagan
As the United States and China continue to play geopolitical chess in Asia, forming or renewing economic political and military alliances, it is pleasing to note that leading scholars in international relations from both East and West have once more turned their attention to Thucydides, the 5th century Athenian historian. More than two millennia old, Thucydides’ work has nonetheless become a center of vigorous debate among American and Chinese strategists alike, with the Chinese political science association dedicating a panel to it at its annual 2014 conference in Beijing. Whereas scholars and generals once looked to the Peloponnesian War to understand the conflict between U.S. naval power vs. Soviet land power, today they study it in hopes of neutralizing the rising security competition between a status quo power, the United States, and a rising/recovering power, the Peoples Republic of China.
But for all the interest in the study of classical antiquity, one area that has not received as much attention as it might is the comparison between the Athenian and Chinese ability to coerce an adversary through economic clout. Like Classical Athens, China today has repeatedly used its economic muscle to coerce states bold enough to confront it. The most recent case is the boycotting of Japanese brands. Four years ago the embargo on rare earths almost strangled the technology-intensive and export-dependent Japanese economy. And now latest reports highlight the downward trend in Japanese investments in China, suggesting the technologically hungry Chinese economy may be about to pay a similar price.
Even assuming that China is right to confront its neighbors’ claims of sovereignty over disputed territory, commercial retaliation is not an effective strategy. Embargos can produce a slow and very painful economic death, and embitter the citizens who must suffer the consequences, who may therefore view it as highly confrontational and warlike. The result could be lasting ill-will towards the state that initiated the embargo and polarized public opinion for many years to come. That in turn could have dire consequences for regional peace and stability.
Read the full story at The Diplomat