By Jofi Joseph
If reaching a permanent agreement by next month’s deadline proves impossible, the West must lock in the status-quo.
Negotiations last month in New York between the P5+1 and Iran on a permanent agreement to limit Tehran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief did not appear to achieve much progress, despite the presence of foreign ministers and heads of states attending the United Nations General Assembly proceedings. Instead, both sides appeared more focused on assigning blame to each other. For that reason, it is not too early to begin thinking through what happens if talks fail to produce a final agreement by the November 24 deadline. Another extension of the interim agreement negotiated almost a year ago should be at the top of the agenda for all involved, given the clear benefits already delivered and the strategic vacuum that would result if it withers away.
In announcing this past July the temporary extension of the interim agreement, both sides were emphatic it was only designed to facilitate time for additional talks on a permanent accord. At various instances since then, officials from both Iran and the P5+1 governments have thrown cold water on the idea of an additional extension. From the perspective of maximizing negotiating leverage, it makes sense for each side to emphasize that midnight is approaching and that, if the other side does not make the hard choices and difficult compromises necessary for a permanent deal, all will be lost.
Yet it is unclear if this mutual gamesmanship will produce the necessary conditions for a permanent agreement. Although Iran and the P5+1 appear to have converged on a number of key issues, including verification measures and the final disposition of the Arak reactor and the Fordow enrichment facility, major gaps remain over two core issues: the size of the enrichment capacity — and thus breakout capability — Iran will possess during the course of a permanent agreement, and the length of duration of that agreement.
Read the full story at The Diplomat