By Joshua Kurlantzick
The assumption that this coup will be like all the rest is based on flawed thinking.
In my previous post on the rule of Prayuth Chan-ocha, I noted that, in this “hard coup,” army rule could last a considerably long time–two years, and possibly even more. Some Thai observers are suggesting that Prayuth and the army will retain power for as much as five years. As I mentioned previously, in this “hard coup,” the military is likely to take more draconian action against any opponents in the next year as well, since the army has overseen somewhat of an economic rebound, has muffled most of the Thai press, and has gotten relatively little criticism from Asian countries like Japan, Indonesia and India. I expect to see activists detained for longer periods of time, and treated much more roughly under army detention than they have been so far. I also expect Thaksin sympathizers to be purged from the civil service and the armed forces, and many leading pro-Thaksin politicians to be charged with offenses and actually sent to jail, a rarity in the past for Thai elites of any political persuasion.
Given these grim possibilities, how should the United States respond? Thailand is of course a treaty ally and a longtime partner of the United States, as Thai diplomats are fond of reminding Americans. What’s more, despite the junta’s tough talk about the United States-Thailand relationship and Bangkok’s cozying up to China in recent months as a supposed counterweight to American influence in the kingdom, the Thai military, and Thai elites in general, very much still need American and European weaponry, training, and diplomatic ties. In addition, Thailand’s economy is so dependent on tourism and exports that it is, more than many other countries, naturally forced to be somewhat responsive to American, European, and Japanese policy toward the kingdom. It will be a long time before Chinese investment could replace Western and Japanese investment in terms of its overall impact on the Thai economy. Pavin Chachavalpongpun had an excellent op-ed on why Thailand still needs Western investment and acceptance, and why this situation gives Western democracies continuing influence over the kingdom.
Read the full story at The Diplomat