By Carl Thayer
Did Vietnam buckle under Chinese pressure or did China blink?
China’s unexpected announcement on July 15 that it was withdrawing its mega oil drilling platform from Vietnamese waters early has resulted in a debate among academic specialists about the reasons why.
Zachary Abuza, a professor at Simmons College in Boston, argues that Vietnam buckled under Chinese pressure, while Alexander Vuving, a professor at the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Hawaii, argues that Vietnam stood its ground and China blinked.
Abuza’s analysis appeared in the “Speaking Freely” section of the Asia Times on July 29. His analysis was original, provocative and highly speculative.
Abuza argued that China’s placement of the oil rig “presented the most divisive threat in years to Hanoi’s Communist Party leadership.” Not only were members of the Politburo deeply divided, but the majority chose to de-escalate the crisis by accommodating Chinese pressure. “Hanoi’s decision to back down has potential grave implications,” Abuza writes, “Vietnam has effectively appeased China, which will most likely lead to more aggression.” A policy of appeasement, Abuza concludes, “will pose a danger to the regime itself… [and] to the regime’s legitimacy.”
Read the full story at The Diplomat