By Clint Richards
With sanctions unable to stop Pyongyang’s weapons program, the U.S. needs a new policy.
Despite North Korea’s increasing isolation from its only strategic ally and benefactor, China, it has remained resolute in its antagonistic stance against the U.S. in recent weeks, especially as South Korea and the U.S. conduct regular military drills in the region. North Korea has responded by increasing its tempo of missile launches, and on Wednesday it was revealed that Pyongyang could be preparing for a full intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test. The U.S. has responded with new and proposed sanctions on several fronts as it seeks to constrain the Hermit Kingdom’s behavior.
However, any actual U.S. levers over North Korea’s behavior are limited, and many in the West, including some top American officials, are becoming sensitized to Pyongyang’s repeated nuclear and ballistic missile tests. As North Korea shows that it is not only unresponsive to sanctions, despite the cost to its economy and population, but that it can make steady progress in its missile and nuclear research, the U.S. and its allies will have to find more creative ways to check its progress before it manages to miniaturize a nuclear device and successfully mount it to a fully operational ICBM.
Following a rather audacious threat on Sunday from Pyongyang to strike the U.S. with nuclear weapons, on the 61st anniversary of the Korean War Armistice, it does appear that the military regime is taking steps to be able to do just that. Satellite imagery from the U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University’s 38 North blog suggests that ICBM engine trials may be coming to a close. If those trials are successfully concluded by the end of this year, “the next stage in development of the KN-08 road-mobile ICBM may be a full-scale flight test of the missile.” Modifications to the Sohae Satellite Launching Station in order to accommodate such a large missile could be ready by 2015, although there is considerable speculation in the intelligence community as to whether North Korea is making enough progress in its ballistic missile program to be ready by such an early date.
Read the full story at The Diplomat