By Clint Richards
An increased Russian presence in East Asia would likely heighten tensions with Japan.
This article is along the lines of what the intelligence community calls a “red team” or alternative analysis, something that seeks to explore alternative or low-probability scenarios against what are generally accepted geopolitical narratives. While it is hardly certain at this point that Russia will make a dramatic and strategic shift toward the East, considering how such a shift might impact its relationship with a country such as Japan is worthwhile, especially given that the two have attempted to maintain working relations despite the ongoing crisis in Ukraine and Japan’s attachment to U.S. foreign policy.
As my colleague Ankit noted yesterday, on Monday Japan imposed sanctions on Russia over its support of anti-Kiev rebels accused of shooting down Malaysian Airlines Flight MH17, in line with measures taken by the EU and G7. These new sanctions, while tougher and obviously detrimental to ties between Tokyo and Moscow, did not appear to quite measure up to the measures that have been imposed by the U.S. Nevertheless, Japan’s sanctions showed that it had sided with its security guarantors in Washington D.C. over advancing negotiations concerning the disputed Kuril Islands/Northern Territories or possible future energy deals with Russia.
On Tuesday however, two more events showed that Russia and Japan’s relationship may be souring even further, or that perhaps the status quo in Northeast Asia could shift in the near future if events in Europe continue to go against Russian interests. Without a pro-Moscow government in Kiev, or at least one not hostile to its interests, Russian energy export options in Europe dwindle as a large part of its exports go through Ukraine. As Russia’s recent sweetheart natural gas deal with China shows, Moscow is seriously considering a strategic shift in its energy market away from Europe and toward the large population centers of East Asia.
Read the full story at The Diplomat