By Ankit Panda
A U.S.-Vietnam alliance might be closer to reality now more than ever.
Carl Thayer, Flashpoints‘ resident South China Sea expert, took a look at the reasons China might have preemptively withdrawn its oil rig from South China Sea waters disputed with Vietnam. Thayer paints a compelling picture of the multifaceted strategic environment that led Beijing to pull out its oil rig HYSY-981, which it installed in early May. The diplomatic crisis that followed drove a wedge between Vietnam and China. For Vietnam — particularly the China skeptics within the country — the episode vindicated years of mistrust of Beijing. For China, as Thayer argues, an early withdrawal of the oil rig at this point represents a face-saving resolution to the crisis — Beijing can now move to repair relations with Vietnam.
The HYSY-981 episode may have rendered Vietnam more of a wild card state in the U.S.-China competition in the Asia-Pacific than it has ever been. Traditionally, party-to-party solidarity between the communist parties of both Vietnam and China has kept the Sino-Vietnamese bilateral a relatively stable feature in the region. The United States, which established diplomatic relations with Vietnam just 19 years ago, has slowly been expanding its relationship with Hanoi. The HYSY-981 crisis between China and Vietnam represents an important overture for Washington in Southeast Asia. If capitalized, the United States could add an important ally in the region and continue to have more friends along the Asia-Pacific rimland than does China.
Read the full story at The Diplomat