In the unthinkable event of a full-blown war between China and the United States, defeat for the People's Liberation Army could end up making it even more lethal, says Robert Farley, assistant professor at the Patterson School of Diplomacy and International Commerce at the University of Kentucky.
In a June 9 piece published in the American bi-monthly international affairs magazine National Interest, Farley says a Sino-American war is not as unthinkable as it once was. Apart from a traditional contingency involving Taiwan independence or North Korea, such a war could now arise from territorial disputes in the East China Sea with Japan and in the South China Sea with the Philippines and Vietnam.
Farley does not envisage an "out of the blue" strike from either side, but believes it will be a "brewing crisis" that steadily escalates over a few incidents. In any case, a Sino-American war would not begin with a US pre-emptive strike due to "the political costs associated with climbing the ladder of escalation," Farley said, adding that the US "needs to prepare to absorb the first blow."
Read the full story at Want China Times