By Amitai Etzioni
‘China had best keep in mind that no one has a monopoly on making strategic mistakes.’
Maj. Gen. Zhu Chenghu, a professor at China’s National Defense University, said recently that “the Americans are making very, very important strategic mistakes right now” in their approach to China. His comments followed a strong statement by Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel, who stated that “China has undertaken destabilizing, unilateral actions asserting its claims in the South China Sea.”
However, it is quite likely that this time it is China that is making a grave strategic mistake. The way China is proceeding may well allow it to win several more bouts – of the rather small kind it did when it positioned one oil rig in contested waters next to Vietnam; grabbing one more shoal like it did in the Philippines, or even having more fishing and coast guard boats dance around the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands. Moreover, China is likely to be correct in assuming that the United States, tired from two long and costly wars, will not go to war over these piles of rocks (and the rights to the areas that surround them). And China may even be right in assuming that Japan is on its way to becoming more nationalistic and building up its military anyhow. Finally, China may well have noted that several of the small nations involved feel that they are better off accommodating China than confronting it. However, China should realize that one can win one bout after another—and still lose the match.
Read the full story at The Diplomat