By Amitai Etzioni
Calls for substantial new investments in U.S. military hardware seem a little hasty.
Two of Washington’s brightest and most articulate strategic analysts sound the alarm. J. Randy Forbes and Elbridge Colby believe that China has made precipitous gains against the United States’ military power and that the U.S. must urgently increase its defense efforts to maintain its superiority.
Forbes and Colby assert that “the balance of military power in the Asia-Pacific writ large is under serious and growing pressure from China’s military-modernization efforts,” and the U.S. “edge in technology … is eroding.” They caution that China’s military buildup poses “critical” challenges “to achieving U.S. political-military objectives in the areas that have traditionally been part of our defense umbrella,” namely “challenges to [the United States’] military superiority in the crucial air, sea, space, and cyberspace domains.” Most alarming, Forbes and Colby hold that failure to act could have “tremendous strategic consequences” for the United States and its allies.
To support these claims, Forbes and Colby provide no new details (or old ones, for that matter) about China’s military buildup, instead quoting prominent officials. Their “evidence” consists of Commander of U.S. Pacific Command Admiral Samuel Locklear’s statement that “our historic dominance … is diminishing;” Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics Frank Kendall’s assertion that the United States’ technological superiority in defense “is being challenged in ways … not seen for decades, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region;” and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Martin Dempsey’s claim that “our technology edge [is eroding].” Forbes and Colby seem not to mind that the job of these officials is to cry wolf whenever they see any creature moving, lest they be charged with having ignored a menace if said wolf does materialize. Forbes and Colby also ignore that the military budget and the generals’ command depend on finding a new enemy now that the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are winding down. And they do not take into account the military’s long record of overestimating the dangers posed by America’s enemies, as notably occurred in the case of the former Soviet Union.
Read the full story at The Diplomat