By Zachary Keck
A new essay argues that Taiwan’s least bad option may be to adopt the “Hong Kong strategy.”
A new issue of The National Interest is out this week. Of particular interest to Diplomat readers will be John Mearsheimer’s essay pondering Taiwan’s future in light of China’s rise. The piece is based on a speech he gave in Taiwan a few months back.
The article is concerned with the fairly distant future when, assuming continued growth, China’s military and economic power equals if not surpasses the United States’. At this point, Mearsheimer contends, the U.S. will not be able to defend Taiwan conventionally given prevailing geography. He also asserts that the U.S. will not extend its nuclear umbrella to Taiwan because of concerns about precipitating a nuclear war with China.
The article is characteristically thought-provoking and provocative. Mearsheimer makes bold statements throughout like “There was no flashpoint between the superpowers during the Cold War that was as dangerous as Taiwan will be in a Sino-American security competition.” Beyond the Taiwan issue, he outlines his views of more general issues, including how China will act in the broader Asia-Pacific region if its power equals that of the United States.
Read the full story at The Diplomat