By Zachary Keck
The end of the unipolar era will create new dangers that the world mustn’t overlook.
Over at the Washington Post, Charles Kenny has a provocative op-ed arguing that China’s GDP will almost certainly soon surpass America’s in absolute terms, and this is to the United States’ benefit (the op-ed is based on Kenny’s new book, which can be purchased here).
Kenny’s first argument in support of this claim is that Americans’ quality of life will still be better than their Chinese counterparts, and that in fact “losing the title of largest economy doesn’t really matter much to Americans’ quality of life.” Fine.
Kenny next concedes that there may be some negative effects, but nonetheless argues that these are limited. For example, he notes that the dollar may no longer be the world’s reserve currency, but “businesses in the rest of the world still manage to export, even though they must go through the trouble of exchanging currencies.” Similarly, while having the largest GDP has allowed America to maintain the largest and most powerful military, “how much [has] the three-quarters increase in defense spending between 2000 and 2011 enhanced America’s well-being?” Thus, lower defense spending could be a net positive.
Kenny goes on to list a number of benefits America will receive from its relative economic decline. For example, this relative decline “is mainly a result of the developing economies becoming larger, healthier, more educated, more free and less violent. And there is little doubt the United States benefits from that,” such as through increased exports and being able to import the amazing new innovations these newly empowered countries will no doubt invent. Moreover, economic growth in the developing world “also means that there are more places for Americans to travel in security and comfort.”
There’s no doubt some truth to at least some of this. Most notably, China having a larger GDP will not equate to a better quality of life for Chinese people, and, I suppose, having more vacation spots to choose from also could bring some amount of joy to the top 1% of Americans who get bored of laying out on the same hundreds of beaches they currently feel safe to vacation in.
Still, China’s relative rise and the United States’ relative decline carries significant risks, for the rest of the world probably more so than for Americans. Odds are, the world will be worse off if China and especially others reach parity with the U.S. in the coming years.
Read the full story at The Diplomat