By Zachary Keck
The strategic triangle from the Cold War is returning. Only this time, Russia is the prize.
During the Cold War, China was arguably the only major state whose allegiance was up for grabs among the superpowers. Thus, upon its founding the People’s Republic of China put itself squarely inside the Soviet camp, only to later have a falling out with Moscow. As relations with Moscow deteriorated throughout the 1960s, China laid the groundwork for a rapprochement with the United States. By the late 1980s, however, China began recalibrating its position again, and began repairing ties with the Soviet Union.
China’s wildcard status in this “strategic triangle” brought it numerous benefits. As Andrew Nathan and Andrew Scobell have observed, China’s uncertain loyalties “allowed a country that was poor, isolated, and unable to project military power beyond its borders — China — to become the third most important strategic actor in the world, playing a larger role than England, France, Germany, India, Japan, or any state other than the two superpowers.” Another irony of the Soviet-U.S.-Chinese strategic triangle, the same authors point out, is that the “weakest of the three countries reaped the most benefits from tripolar diplomacy because it was the asset in play in the three-way game.”
As China rises and tensions with the U.S. mount, a new strategic triangle is developing between Beijing, Washington and Moscow. Although many of the same factors are present, one overarching difference between the contemporary strategic triangle and its Cold War predecessor is that Russia and China have swapped roles. That is, now and in the future Russia is the key prize of a Sino-U.S. bilateral competition. With some strategic acumen, Russia can turn this to its benefit in numerous ways.
Read the full story at The Diplomat