By Robert Farley
Well before we have any solid information on how the deal between Russia, Syria, and the United States will play out, analysts have begun debating its implications for broader U.S. foreign policy. Our own Harry Kazianis ruminates on the potentially dire lessons that East Asian friends and foes might draw about U.S. credibility and resolve from this exercise.
The basic logic of reputational commitment runs as follows: a U.S. demonstration of resolve with respect to its “red line” declaration in Syria will enhance U.S. credibility worldwide. Because commitments are interdependent (demonstrating strength in one area helps everywhere) potential foes like China or North Korea will become less likely to “test” U.S. commitments to Pacific allies. Holding fast on chemical weapons in Syria helps to ward off future problems in East Asia.
Accordingly, concerns over the failure or success of Obama policy have focused on whether or not the United States displayed “weakness.” As a recent RUSI report on the deal suggested, “the real problem with this deal is its impact on America's global standing.” Doug Feith, in the Wall Street Journal, argues that authoritarian regimes now have greater incentive to develop chemical weapon stockpiles.
Read the full story at The Diplomat