By Scott A. Synder
Following an extended period of North Korean threats and inter-Korean tension during March and April of this year, North Korea prepared then abandoned a missile launch, opting instead to shift back to charm diplomacy. Low-level inter-Korean talks over a possible restart of Kaesong drag on, as the North Korean leadership has turned its focus toward economic improvement, and Kim Jong-un presided over an unprecedented military “fatherland victory” parade to mark the sixtieth anniversary of the armistice in late July. But it would be a mistake to think that recent calm will be sustained.
In fact, North Korea analysts including Bruce Bechtol argue for a three-stage North Korean strategy that consists of brinkmanship, charm offensive, and renewed provocation; suggesting that the time is ripe for new North Korean provocations. Plus, the annual U.S.-South Korea Ulchi Freedom Guardian military exercise is scheduled for mid-August, providing North Korea with its latest pretext for testing the patience of the United States and South Korea. Certainly, the North Korean system’s seemingly inherent need for instability—and the frustrations of its current situation—provide every reason to be on guard against new provocative actions by North Korea. But exactly what sort of provocative actions should South Korea and the United States prepare to meet?
Read the full story at The Diplomat