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| Australian Navy Frigate escorts a US Navy Carrier (RIMPAC 2012) |
By James R. Holmes
Professor Joe Nye has a nifty piece over at the Washington Post examining the future of American power, and by extension the use of that power to advance U.S. purposes in the world. His bumper sticker: that the "rise of the rest," a phrase culled from Fareed Zakaria's writings, will determine to what effect Washington can wield its power this century. Rivals' power could fetter U.S. policy, it seems, but deft diplomacy could transmute competition or indifference into cooperation.
Nye strikes a fairly upbeat note, cautioning against straight-line projections of the recent past into the future. (Bravo.) That China can maintain its smooth ascent to regional and world power looks doubtful, whereas the glass is more than half-full for the United States despite recent economic travails. In short, there's little cause to fret that America will tumble from its perch atop the international pecking order. Nothing is preordained. What is clear is that Washington's margin of economic, military, and thus diplomatic primacy will narrow as China, India, and other ambitious powers come to eminence. The "unipolar moment" Charles Krauthammer glimpsed just after the Cold War — that instant when an unchallengeable United States bestrode the international order —will pass into history.
In all likelihood, vouchsafes Nye, the vagaries of power will leave America standing first among relative equals. As the rest rise, "U.S. presidents will face an increasing number of issues in which obtaining our preferred outcomes will require power with others as much as power over others …. The paradox of American power is that even the largest country will not be able to achieve the outcomes it wants without the help of others."
Read the full story at The Diplomat