23 June 2012

Editorial: The Logic of China’s Korea Policy

By Yun Sun

Many U.S. and South Korean analysts have become increasingly frustrated, indeed annoyed, by China’s policy toward North Korea. In their view, China’s policy not only jeopardizes the security of the United States and South Korea, but also undermines international norms in a way detrimental to China’s own national interests.
In an eloquent analysis on Pacific Forum CSIS, Ralph Cossa and Brad Glosserman argued that China’s  North Korea policy is “misguided, illogical and self-defeating” because it enables North Korean misbehavior, antagonizes China’s neighbors, contributes to the strengthening of U.S. alliances in the region and tarnishes China’s international image.
But the judgment on whether China’s North Korea policy is illogical or self-defeating very much depends on the perception of China’s goals. Despite all the criticism, most Chinese analysts would argue that China’s policy has its own internal logic, and that suggesting otherwise is to fail to see the issue through Chinese eyes.
The widely accepted assumption in the policy community is that China has three goals on North Korea: stability (i.e. no implosion and no war), peace (diplomatic normalization between the U.S. and North Korea), and denuclearization/nonproliferation. Of these three goals, China prioritizes stability over peace and denuclearization. It’s this secondary status given to denuclearization that’s the biggest sore point for Washington and Seoul, both of whom believe it should be the most important goal for all countries.
However, with the quickening changes in regional dynamics, including U.S. policy, this analysis has missed a fundamental strategic aspect of China’s security assessment, namely that China is increasingly concerned about the strategic intentions of the U.S. towards China, as well as its web of military alliances.

Read the full story at The Diplomat