By Trefor Moss
The standoff between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea has evolved over the last five weeks into a bizarre brinkmanship triangle. The United States finds itself reluctantly backed into corner number three: this is definitely not the pivot to Asia that Washington had in mind.
The beauty of brinkmanship, of course, is that actually going over the brink is seldom required. Most likely it won’t be necessary in this situation either. Despite some tough talk from both Beijing and Manila, the hope now is that the two-and-a-half-month fishing moratorium due to be imposed by China on May 16, imposed annually since 1999, will finally help to douse a few tempers, and bring the confrontation to a peaceful conclusion.
The U.S. government must be praying for such an outcome. If the Chinese and Philippine crews glowering at one another over the contested Scarborough Shoal actually start shooting, the ensuing conflict is likely to pan out in one of two directions:
Scenario A: China’s superior navy initially makes short work of the Philippine opposition, but Manila then invokes its Mutual Defense Treaty with the United States. Honoring its treaty obligations, the U.S. dispatches a carrier battle group to the South China Sea and reclaims the contested Scarborough Shoal on behalf of its Philippine allies.
Scenario B: As China swiftly takes Scarborough Shoal by force, Manila invokes its Mutual Defense Treaty with the United States. But Washington doesn’t pick up the phone, maintaining sheepishly at subsequent press conferences that these “obscure” maritime territories fall outside the MDT’s confines.
Either policy option is miserable from the U.S. perspective. War with China is obviously something to avoid at all costs. But at the same time the abandonment of the Philippines would torpedo the strategic rebalance to Asia before it has even got underway: Washington’s allies in the Pacific would conclude that the United States is no longer dependable as a hedge against China (which is the reason most East Asian countries want to have the U.S. around).
Read the full story at The Diplomat