By Greg Austin
As Australia focuses on China’s perceived advantages in the SCS, it’s worth taking a closer look at that narrative.
Even as the world is facing a clear and present danger in the form of globally mobilized Salafist terrorism and a resurgent and spiteful Russia invading its neighbor, there is a new round of alarmism in Australia about disputes in the South China Sea. With the high profile U.S. freedom of navigation operation behind us, and U.S. Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter’s hawkish tones less audible for now, the issue of strategic imbalance in the South China Sea is gaining currency in Australia.
Concern about a strategic imbalance in the semi-enclosed South China Sea stems in part from the mathematical comparison between Chinese and U.S. forces normally stationed in or near the South China Sea. China’s order of battle in the area far outweighs that of the United States. This should be no surprise, given that China borders the sea area in question and has legitimate claims to millions of square kilometers of maritime resource jurisdiction based on Hainan Island and mainland territory (Guangdong province has 4,000 km of South China Sea coast). In addition, China has claimed several other island groups there since before 1945. In comparison, the United States is not a littoral state and has no claim on territory or resources jurisdiction in the South China Sea.
But the other part of the concern is that China is, in the words of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), “the most motivated actor” and that “other powers either lack the capacity or are reluctant to directly engage in the dispute.” The Institute observed that the international community therefore lacks “options for a solution to strategic competition in the South China Sea because of this asymmetry of motive and capability.”
The concept of strategic balance is a slippery one. It could be understood to mean anything between a comparison of orders of battle (a nearly useless analytical tool) and the much broader, highly political concept of balance of power.
Read the full story at The Diplomat
NOTE: The Views express by the author are his/hers alone & don’t necessarily reflect those of the “PacificSentinel” Blog.