By Michal Thim and Liao Yen-Fan
Taiwan needs anti-access strategy, but it also needs an air force to complement it.
Taiwan’s defence planners are in a precarious position. Modernization of the PLA has irreversibly tilted the qualitative edge towards Beijing, and Taiwan lacks the wherewithal to engage in an arms race with its powerful neighbour, who happens to claim Taiwan as part of its territory. Perhaps the only way out is to redirect efforts towards asymmetrical platforms: Taiwan needs to mount anti-access/area-denial (A2AD) capability on its own. Yet compromising the combat effectiveness of the Air Force (ROCAF) is not the answer. A suggestion to scrap the much needed upgrades to Taiwan’s standing fleet of F-16s without augmenting its existing force structure, as proposed in The Diplomat in an otherwise thoughtful piece by Van Jackson, means just that.
Granted, Jackson is absolutely correct in identifying A2AD as the desirable direction, and Taiwan has already taken notice. Other experts, such as James R. Holmes or Ian Easton have argued for incorporating A2AD platforms into Taiwan’s defence posture. Jackson’s proposition would fit well into the “porcupine strategy” proposed by US Naval War College Professor William S. Murray in 2008 (PDF), who also recommended scrapping high-level expensive acquisitions and proceeding with affordable investments to enhance survivability. One of the authors of this piece has similarly advocated for Taiwan’s A2AD approach elsewhere.
However, “going asymmetrical” must accommodate and use existing assets. An active fighter complement has its unique role in both peace and war, and while the ROCAF would not be able to maintain Defensive Air Superiority (DAS) even under ideal conditions, it does contribute to the goal of building-up “resolute defense and credible deterrence” as stressed in Taiwan’s defensive-oriented (PDF) military policy. Obviously, Taiwan’s defense cannot voluntarily vacate the sky before shots are fired. As long as the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) must deal with the ROCAF, it cannot direct resources elsewhere (i.e. against land and sea based A2AD assets, for example). Thus, discontinuing upgrades and never proceeding with the sale of new fighter jets would effectively degrade the ROCAF into a mere peace time air policing force. That in turn would undermine Taiwan’s emerging A2AD infrastructure.
Read the full story at The Diplomat