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| Futenma Airbase (File Photo) |
By Ricky Hough
Geopolitical realities suggest that the recent election of an anti-base candidate is unlikely to change much.
Yet another high profile gubernatorial election has come and gone in Okinawa, and yet again another anti-base candidate has won. Takeshi Onaga, the anti-base candidate who ran as an independent, handily defeated incumbent Hirokazu Nakaima. The governor-elect promises to be a thorn in the side of the central government and current Japanese Prime Shinzo Abe.
Onaga has vowed to halt the construction of the runways at Camp Schwab, a Marine Corps base that lies adjacent to the small village of Henoko on Okinawa’s northeastern shore. Camp Schwab has been designated the replacement facility for Marine Corps Air Base Futenma, currently located in the densely populated city of Ginowan in central Okinawa. Futenma and the proposed replacement facility at Camp Schwab have been a source of political contention for decades. Onaga is just one of many Okinawa political leaders who have promised to have the plans for the replacement facility scrapped and Futenma relocated outside Okinawa prefecture altogether. Yet, Futenma still functions at full capacity and the landfill and construction for the replacement facility continue virtually unimpeded.
Conceivably, Onaga could prove to be a political disturbance potent enough to force Tokyo to abandon its plans. More likely, Tokyo will call his bluff and clamp down politically and economically. Regardless of the rhetoric from anti-base Okinawan politicians, not a lot has been accomplished in terms of large-scale base reductions. In reality, besides generally being a nuisance, there is not much Onaga can do to halt the construction of the Futenma replacement facility already underway at Camp Schwab. As recent history has shown, Okinawan leaders simply do not have the leverage to force Tokyo’s hand, leaving anti-base politicians quite able to make promises, but quite unable to keep them.
Read the full story at The Diplomat