By Clint Richards
A distracted ally may give Abe the rationale for a larger role in regional security.
While the U.S. midterm elections on Tuesday had wide-ranging repercussions domestically, the effects will also quickly begin to seep into other areas, particularly in East Asia. While the impact on TPP negotiations of a Republican-held Congress have been covered, how the change will influence bilateral relations with Japan has been given less attention. True, the fundamental nature of the relationship and the core interests of both sides will not change, but the political bandwidth of an isolated Democratic president contending with a strong Republican opposition will necessarily narrow. While some presidents, most notably Richard Nixon in recent history, have been able to dynamically wield foreign policy despite intense domestic turmoil, Barack Obama has not proven able to consistently pursue policy objectives in light of dramatic changes either at home or abroad.
Japan is showing awareness that Obama may not be able to devote the kind of concerted attention Tokyo feels is necessary over the next two years in East Asia. While statements from Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga continue to underline the enduring nature of the relationship, stating “we will continue to deepen our cooperation with the United States and there will be no change to that at all,” there is still concern within the administration. The Jiji Press reported a senior government official as saying “if any change occurs in the U.S. presence in Asia, China would increase its activities.”
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